The cost of a traditional fish and chip meal in the UK has reached an average of £11, a sharp increase from approximately £6.95 five years ago. This surge is attributed to a combination of factors, including dwindling cod and haddock stocks due to decades of overfishing and the impact of sanctions on Russian fishing companies, formerly key suppliers to the UK.
The Barents Sea, a major fishery jointly managed by Russia and Norway, has seen its cod quota reduced to the lowest level since 1991 in an effort to aid stock recovery. This year's spawning cod population is estimated to be the lowest since 2000. Consequently, British buyers are importing significantly less frozen cod and haddock, yet paying considerably more for the reduced volume.
Exploring Alternatives Amidst Shortages
Fish and chip shops are increasingly exploring alternative fish species. Saithe, once promoted as a viable substitute, has also experienced erratic stock levels. Some establishments are experimenting with serving octopus, which has become more abundant in British waters, though its preparation requires specialized processing and often involves export and return. Dogfish, a small shark species found locally, is another alternative being considered.
The sanctions imposed on Russian fishing firms, such as Norebo and Murman Seafood, for alleged espionage have halted the UK's supply of Russian fish. In 2022, the UK imported nearly 3,000 tons of frozen haddock from Russia, a figure that has dropped to just 237 tons this year following increased tariffs and bans on Russian-flagged vessels docking in UK ports.
Shifting Supply Chains and Rising Costs
The UK has turned to Iceland for a larger portion of its frozen fish supply, but this comes at a higher cost, with Icelandic haddock averaging 56.8 percent more expensive than Russian haddock. Pollock, a cheaper alternative previously promoted by figures like Jamie Oliver, presents challenges in customer acceptance due to its darker, earthier taste.
Beyond fish, the cost of essential ingredients has also risen. Potatoes have seen a 27 percent price increase per kilogram over the past year, battered white fish costs have risen by nearly a third, and cooking oil prices have surged by almost 50 percent. These increased operational costs, alongside rising payroll and utility expenses, are placing significant pressure on independent fish and chip businesses.
Andrew Crook, president of the National Federation of Fish Friers, noted that his shop in Lancashire is one of the few remaining establishments that exclusively serves traditional cod and chips. He predicts that fish and chip shops, numbering around 11,000 today compared to 35,000 in the 1920s, risk becoming even more niche in the coming years, mirroring the evolution of traditional butchers facing supermarket competition. The industry anticipates next year to be particularly challenging due to further projected reductions in the Barents Sea quota for 2026.