A Russian military spacecraft recently maneuvered dangerously close to a commercial satellite, prompting concerns among space analysts that Moscow may have been rehearsing an attack. The incident involved Russia's Cosmos 2612 satellite approaching an ICEYE satellite, designated X36, which provides radar imagery to Western governments, including Ukraine.
US Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno described the mid-October encounter as conduct 'consistent with on-orbit weapons operations.' Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, stated that the close approach 'looks like an attack rehearsal' and represents the most aggressive posture he has observed from Russia regarding threatening other nations' satellites.
The X36 satellite, operated by the Finnish company ICEYE, is registered in the U.S. and is crucial for providing intelligence. ICEYE has maintained that its satellite constellation is resilient to disruptions. The encounter has amplified worries about the vulnerability of commercial satellite networks, which have become increasingly vital for military operations.
This event follows months of Russian activity near ICEYE satellites, which Western officials have warned could be used to disrupt commercial constellations. Gillinger, a former U.S. Air Force intelligence officer, suggested that Cosmos 2612's close approach, within a kilometer and potentially much closer according to some analysts, indicated a test of kinetic attack capabilities, as such proximity is not typically necessary for intelligence gathering or electronic interference.
Russia has previously warned that Western commercial satellites aiding Ukraine could become targets. The Russian defense ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Further raising concerns, two other Russian satellites are reportedly heading towards the orbital path of another ICEYE spacecraft, X37. US space-tracking firm COMSPOC also noted that these two satellites are becoming well-positioned to approach X37.
Major General Michael Traut, Germany's space commander, commented that such close approaches could serve various purposes, including inspection, observation, or interference, depending on the spacecraft's capabilities. He cautioned, however, that the maneuvers alone do not confirm an attack rehearsal, as their purpose cannot be definitively determined from publicly available orbital data.
The broader context includes major powers preparing for potential conflict in space. Washington has acknowledged deploying weapons in orbit, and the head of US Space Command has stated that Russia has deployed a space weapon within reach of critical US national security satellites. Andrew Turner, a space consultant and retired senior British air force officer, believes Russia's approach to X36 significantly elevates the potential for an attack, whether deliberate or inadvertent.