A Russian military spacecraft, Cosmos 2612, conducted maneuvers in close proximity to a Western satellite last month, an action that a space specialist suggested could have been a rehearsal for an attack. This incident has amplified concerns about the vulnerability of commercial satellite networks crucial for military operations.
The Russian satellite, Cosmos 2612, approached X36, a satellite operated by the Finnish company ICEYE. X36 provides radar imagery to Western governments and militaries, including Ukraine. US Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno stated on X that the satellite's conduct was "consistent with on-orbit weapons operations."
Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, described the encounter as "the most aggressive posture I've seen Russia take in terms of threatening satellites from another nation." He indicated that such a close approach would not be necessary for intelligence collection or electronic interference, suggesting it was testing kinetic attack-related capabilities.
Russia's defense ministry did not respond to requests for comment. Moscow has previously warned that Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine could become legitimate targets for retaliation.
This event follows months of Russian activity around ICEYE satellites. Western officials have expressed concerns that these actions demonstrate capabilities that could be used to disrupt commercial constellations. In May, four Russian military satellites were positioned near X36, prompting ICEYE to move its satellite, which led to further Russian maneuvers, according to ICEYE CEO Rafal Modrzewski.
In early October, Cosmos 2612 positioned itself behind X36 and rapidly closed the distance over several days, coming within a kilometer, or potentially a few hundred meters, of the ICEYE satellite by mid-October, according to space analysts. Cosmos 2612 later moved approximately 400 kilometers away.
Two other Russian satellites are now reportedly moving toward the orbital path of another ICEYE spacecraft, X37, raising further concerns about potential interference.
Major General Michael Traut, Germany's space commander, noted that such close approaches could be used for inspection, observation, or interference, depending on the spacecraft's capabilities. He cautioned, however, that the maneuvers alone do not confirm an attack rehearsal, as their purpose cannot be definitively determined from publicly available orbital data.
Major global powers are preparing for the possibility of conflict extending into space. Washington has acknowledged deploying weapons in orbit, and the head of US Space Command stated earlier this year that Russia had deployed a space weapon within reach of critical US national security satellites.
Andrew Turner, a space consultant and retired senior British air force officer, commented that Russia's approach to X36 "really elevates the potential of an attack" through either deliberate or inadvertent interaction.