The European Union has presented Serbia with a renewed opportunity to advance its membership talks, contingent on a newly formed government committed to strengthening democracy. This development comes as the bloc also indicated that several other nations are poised for potential accession in the near future.
The European Commission's annual enlargement report highlighted that Montenegro is on track to become the EU's 28th member by 2028, with Albania and Moldova potentially following in 2029. Ukraine's accession, however, is considered unlikely before the end of the decade.
"The significant progress achieved by some candidates over the last year allows us to turn the promise of enlargement into reality," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated. "Step by step, we are building a more complete, stronger Union."
Serbia's progress towards EU membership has been complex. Despite opening new policy chapters under the previous government led by populist president Aleksandar Vucic, who was defeated in a recent election, democratic standards had deteriorated. The commission had previously warned Serbia that it could lose access to significant EU funding if it failed to halt this backsliding. Tensions were also heightened by the public honoring of Ratko Mladic, a convicted war criminal, which drew criticism from EU leaders.
The recent election of a diverse, student-led opposition movement, which had protested Vucic's government for two years, offers a potential turning point. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos suggested that Serbia has a chance for a fresh start and that the new government can "turn the page, strengthen democratic institutions and fundamental rights, and take the necessary steps to advance on Serbia’s accession path."
However, the formation of a government in Belgrade could take months, and EU membership is not necessarily the immediate priority for the movement, which has focused primarily on rooting out corruption. While this aligns with EU values, the movement's lack of political experience may influence the pace of accession.
In a new approach, the commission has outlined specific "roadmaps" for each aspiring member country. This marks a significant step, as the last country to join, Croatia, did so 13 years ago. The EU's expansion had previously stalled amid concerns about the bloc becoming too unwieldy.
The prospect of membership has historically served as a strong incentive for reform, particularly in the Western Balkans, a region still contending with the legacy of 1990s wars and ongoing ethnic tensions. Six countries from this region are seeking to join the EU.
While Moldova and Ukraine have made progress in their membership paths despite external pressures, including Russian influence in Moldova and the ongoing war in Ukraine, their timelines differ. Moldova's negotiations could conclude by early 2028, potentially leading to membership in 2029. Ukraine faces a similar timeline, aiming to close negotiations by the end of 2028, making membership before 2030 improbable.
Other Western Balkan candidates, Bosnia-Herzegovina and North Macedonia, face more distant prospects due to governmental dysfunction and the need for constitutional changes, respectively. Georgia and Turkey are experiencing a standstill in their negotiations due to democratic backsliding.