An independent gambling watchdog group has flagged the United States' World Cup loss to Belgium as one of seven matches from the tournament that may have involved irregular betting activity. The Group of Copenhagen, an organization that detects and prevents the manipulation of sports competitions, specifically cited a prediction market line related to Folarin Balogun's availability for the match against Belgium.
The market line, titled 'Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?', reportedly opened shortly after Balogun received a controversial red card in Team USA's Round-of-32 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Following an intervention from President Donald Trump, who urged FIFA to rescind the red card, the governing body suspended the player's one-game ban, allowing him to participate in the subsequent match against Belgium.
According to reports, the Group of Copenhagen noted that no similar prediction markets were opened for the other 14 players who received red cards during the tournament. The group has requested an official explanation from FIFA regarding the Balogun case. The Daily Mail has contacted FIFA and Polymarket, neither of which have been accused of misconduct in this matter.
IMAGE3 Folarin Balogun (20) fouls Bosnia's Tarik Muharemovic (4), resulting in a red card
IMAGE4 Balogun was given a controversial red card in Team USA's Round-of-32 win over Bosnia
The Group of Copenhagen reviewed all 104 matches of the 2026 World Cup, a tournament that attracted over $240 billion in bets worldwide. The US loss to Belgium was among seven matches that received a 'yellow notice' for potential irregularities, the second-lowest level of concern on the group's scale.
Christian Kalb, a gambling industry expert, explained to The Athletic that while atypical behaviors can have many non-manipulative explanations, conflicts of interest and potential inside information are significant concerns, particularly with prediction markets. He cautioned that unusual behaviors in these markets must be analyzed carefully, as they can also be used for hedging.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian Football Federation (NFF) is planning to file a formal complaint with FIFA's ethics committee regarding President Trump's involvement in Balogun's red card ban. NFF President Lise Klaveness expressed concern that bending rules in such a manner puts the integrity of the game at risk and could lead to improper external influences on FIFA's decisions.
IMAGE2 The Norwegian FA is planning to complain to FIFA over the Folarin Balogun World Cup saga
FIFA President Gianni Infantino maintained that the decision to suspend Balogun's ban was made independently by FIFA's disciplinary committee, emphasizing the importance of their autonomy for the credibility and integrity of football.