Vice President JD Vance cautioned that a full-scale war in Iran could trigger refugee crises and waves of terrorism, drawing parallels to the aftermath of interventions in Libya and Syria. Vance shared these concerns during an interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, published Wednesday.
He stated that while the administration is pursuing a deal to de-escalate the conflict, a segment of the Republican Party is actively working to undermine these diplomatic efforts, advocating instead for regime change through military action.
"There are people who are super hawkish in the American system who have attacked the deal and, frankly, in some ways have tried to derail the deal," Vance said. He questioned the proponents of military action, asking, "What is your proposal? What is your actual argument?"
Vance highlighted the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's capabilities could disrupt a significant portion of global energy supply. He characterized the alternative proposals from some Republicans as a desire to "just bomb them to oblivion" or to force regime change.
"But look, what is our experience with doing that?" Vance asked, referencing past interventions. "It’s not good."
He specifically warned against a ground invasion, which he described as requiring approximately 150,000 U.S. troops. "We're not in that business anymore. We're just not," Vance stated, indicating a shift away from large-scale ground operations.
Citing the intervention in Libya, Vance explained that the toppling of Muammar Gaddafi resulted in a failed state, a significant refugee crisis, and a rise in terrorism. "I do think that there are people who would like that to be the outcome in Iran," he warned. "But then I say again, what is in our interest? How is it in the United States' interest to have 94 million desperate people flooding into Europe, flooding into the United States, to have the sort of terrorist infrastructure that can get established when you fan terrorists all over the world? We've run this experiment before."
Rogan echoed Vance's sentiment, recalling the theory that Gaddafi's downfall contributed to the European migrant crisis of the 2010s. Vance agreed, adding Syria as another example of a failed state resulting from "bad Middle Eastern policy," which led to refugee flows, increased terrorism, and civilian deaths.
Vance also addressed internal party dynamics, noting that a "hawkish" wing of the Republican Party has often opposed former President Trump when his policies diverged from their agenda. He criticized these factions for attacking negotiation efforts and personally attacking him for supporting diplomatic solutions.
"What has really annoyed me about the hawkish side of this thing is they attack any effort to negotiate. They attack the president. They attack me personally," Vance said. He argued that the pursuit of a negotiated settlement does not equate to betrayal, especially when aiming for a favorable outcome for Americans.
Regarding financial aspects, Vance clarified a recent Memorandum of Understanding. He stated that an agreement allows neighboring Gulf countries to invest $300 billion in Iran if it meets its obligations. He accused pro-interventionist Republicans of misrepresenting this as direct U.S. funding to Iran.
Vance concluded by observing that while Americans support military action for clear objectives, they lack enthusiasm for protracted, open-ended wars.