Vice President JD Vance asserted on Thursday that the ongoing U.S. engagement with Iran should not be characterized as a "war," stating there is currently no active shooting. Vance's remarks came during a White House press briefing when questioned about the potential duration of the conflict, which began six months prior, and whether it would conclude before the November midterm elections.
His comments were made on a day when Iran fired upon U.S. ally Kuwait as part of its retaliatory actions following U.S. strikes earlier in the week. Vance defended the U.S. strikes as a necessary response to Iran's continued targeting of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Vance's effort to downplay the intensity of the conflict highlights the challenge facing the Trump administration as it aims to secure Republican control of Congress. The administration, which initially suggested the conflict would be short-lived, is now contending with rising gas prices and increased inflation, issues exacerbated by the ongoing hostilities.
"I wouldn’t call it a war," Vance stated. "Right now, there is no active shooting."
When asked about an end date, Vance indicated he did not want to set "artificial timelines" and suggested the timeline for cessation depends on Iran's actions. "When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’ I think the reality is, I don’t know the answer to that question. You would have to ask the Iranians."
Economic Impact and Oil Flow
The conflict has had a noticeable impact on oil prices, with Brent crude hovering above $95 per barrel on Thursday, a significant increase from around $72 per barrel before the conflict began. The administration has sought to assure the public that the U.S. Navy is maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport.
Administration officials have claimed increased oil flow through the strait, with reports indicating that approximately 15 million to 17 million barrels of oil were escorted by the U.S. Navy on Wednesday and Monday, respectively. Prior to the conflict, about 20 million barrels of Gulf oil passed through the strait daily.
However, independent data from firms tracking marine traffic suggests that ship traffic remains below pre-war levels. Data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence showed 102 transits in the past week and 126 the week prior, compared to 130 or more daily transits before the conflict. TankerTrackers.com reported an average of 5 million barrels per day exiting the strait over the last 28 days, with other recent estimates ranging from 2 million to 6 million barrels per day.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that the Strait of Hormuz will become less significant within two years due to planned land pipelines that will bypass the chokepoint. President Trump also highlighted reports of Syria's efforts to develop westward routes for Gulf exporters.
Diplomatic and Strategic Approaches
Analysts suggest that President Trump is pursuing a dual strategy of economic pressure combined with threats of military escalation. The administration has emphasized the significant damage inflicted on Iran's military capabilities, with Iranian officials reporting substantial financial losses.
Despite U.S. military actions, Iran has retained leverage through its strikes on the strait and Gulf allies. The administration's strategy appears aimed at avoiding both a large-scale war and concessions to Tehran, a position that allows it to maintain pressure without escalating hostilities significantly before the elections.
Recent talks between Iran and Oman regarding joint management of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz indicate ongoing diplomatic efforts in the region. However, analysts believe the administration is unlikely to agree to any terms that would return control of the strait to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.