The United States has completed its military withdrawal from Iraq, with the last remaining troops scheduled to depart by the end of September. This exit marks the end of a decades-long U.S. military presence in the country. Coinciding with the troop withdrawal is a deadline for the disarmament of non-state armed groups, a directive that most militias have signaled they do not intend to follow.
U.S. troops first invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein and departed in 2011. However, a smaller U.S.-led mission was invited back in 2014 to combat the Islamic State group, which had seized significant territory. With the Islamic State reduced to scattered cells, largely due to the actions of Iran-backed militias and the U.S.-led coalition, Washington and Baghdad agreed in 2024 to wind down the mission. Troops had been withdrawing from bases across Iraq since last year, with a contingent remaining in the semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region. These bases have been frequent targets since the U.S. and Israel engaged in conflict with Iran.
U.S. officials stated that the hundreds of troops stationed in northern Iraq would be redeployed to Jordan and other regional locations as part of the withdrawal, which was slated for completion by September 30. Military equipment, including air defense systems, was also to be removed. A U.S. military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that the counterterrorism base in Irbil had diminished in importance with the receding Islamic State threat. The official indicated that withdrawing troops from northern Iraq would reduce risk, as U.S. forces there were frequently targeted by Iran and Iran-backed Iraqi militias, even when not serving as an offensive platform.
Despite the U.S. departure, concerns remain regarding the capacity of Iraqi militias to launch attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. The presence of Houthi rebels in Iraq is also a point of concern. While the U.S. has previously conducted retaliatory strikes against militia sites in Iraq and imposed sanctions, it is unclear if these measures will deter future attacks.
Iraq's government has presented conflicting messages regarding the September 30 deadline for militia disarmament, with some officials suggesting it is a starting point for negotiations rather than a firm cutoff. Analysts like Sajad Jiyad have expressed skepticism, stating that disarmament by that date is unlikely given the political landscape. While a few less influential militias have agreed to surrender weapons, prominent Iran-aligned groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada have rejected the idea or set unrealistic conditions for compliance.
These conditions include bringing Kurdish Peshmerga forces under central government control and expelling Iranian Kurdish dissident groups and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) from the region. A representative from one Iran-backed militia stated that discussions would focus on regulating weapons, not surrendering them, emphasizing that no factions have decided to disarm. The Iraqi government's strategy reportedly involves integrating armed factions into the Iraqi military and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition officially part of the armed forces. The aim is to have these groups hand over heavy weaponry and dissolve their individual commands under the PMF and army leadership.
Iraqi government spokesperson Sabah al-Numan stated that dialogues are ongoing and the issue would be addressed after the withdrawal of international coalition forces. The departure of U.S. troops may not halt attacks in the Kurdish region, as Iran and affiliated groups have targeted locations unrelated to the U.S. presence, including bases of exiled Iranian Kurdish groups and energy facilities. Experts suggest the withdrawal could make the Kurdistan region more vulnerable. Regional government officials have expressed concern over the removal of U.S. air defenses. Al-Numan indicated that Iraq is in the process of acquiring new air defense systems from South Korea, Turkey, and the U.S. to ensure airspace protection.