Crucial U.S. missile stockpiles, including essential air defense interceptors, have been significantly depleted by the recent conflict, according to a U.S. official and analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The war has drawn down inventories of systems like the Patriot missile, which CSIS analysis suggests has seen its stockpiles reduced by two-thirds. The THAAD missile system's inventory, estimated at 452 before the conflict, has been cut in half. A U.S. official described both stockpiles as "extremely low."
Inventories of long-range offensive missiles, such as the ATACM and PRSM, are also a concern, the official noted, particularly as the conflict was largely conducted from safe distances or through air attacks.
President Donald Trump acknowledged the supply situation, stating Thursday that "we need more all the time." He added, "We have certain types of munitions that are very powerful [of which] we have unlimited, virtually unlimited supply." However, he conceded, "We have others where it's a little bit tighter, and we're getting them in on a daily basis." The specific munitions he was referring to were not clarified.
Each missile can cost approximately $4 million and take up to two years to manufacture.
Impact on Military Planning
Retired senior military officers indicated that these reduced missile numbers will factor into Pentagon planning and President Trump's decisions regarding a potential new phase of the conflict. The administration has previously downplayed concerns about munitions, asserting the U.S. can sustain operations in the Middle East and support allied partners under Iranian fire.
Retired Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, former commander of the Navy's Fifth Fleet, stated that munitions "are certainly going to be in the calculus of decision-makers." He added that while lessons will be learned about U.S. stockpiles, the military has adapted well through layered air defense.
Retired Marine Corps Col. Mark Cancian, author of the CSIS report, suggested the munitions concern was likely "an element of the decision to pause the air campaign," though not the sole reason. He predicted this concern will persist for at least the next five years, given the lengthy process of arms appropriation, contracting, and production.
Strategic Implications
Cancian and Donegan indicated that the U.S. retains the capability to escalate to full-scale war if the president chooses. However, the shortfalls raise what Cancian described as a "China problem." He posited that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, is likely communicating to the administration that current inventory levels present a danger for a conflict with Beijing.
Analysts suggest China is likely observing the U.S. use of munitions and their performance in the current conflict. It remains unclear if China would increase offensive actions in the Pacific while the U.S. rebuilds its arsenal.
Lessons from Peacetime Posture
Experts attribute the drawdown to a U.S. defense industrial base operating in a peacetime posture that may require reevaluation. Donegan stated, "You can't let your industrial base move or fall back to a place where it can only support you in peacetime."
Scaling up U.S. stockpiles faces economic challenges, and munitions have a limited shelf life. Recent military doctrine anticipated fighting two regional conflicts that would conclude swiftly. Cancian noted, "I think the Iranians have out-endured our expectations," highlighting the limits of air power against an adversary unwilling to concede.
Gen. Caine has previously testified about the historical "limits" of air power. Cancian also pointed out that munitions have historically been less prioritized in the Pentagon's budget process compared to longer-lasting, visible platforms.
A risk-averse strategy employed by U.S. Central Command in the conflict contributed to the significant drawdown of valuable air defense munitions, according to Tom Karako, a senior fellow at CSIS. Karako suggested that relying solely on high-end standoff weapons, fired from great distances to avoid pilot risk, has led to the current situation. He noted that with air superiority over Iran, U.S. pilots could attack targets more closely, albeit with increased risk, a tradeoff that might be considered if the conflict reignites.
These tradeoffs have been ongoing since the beginning of the conflict, Donegan said, including decisions made to protect Gulf partners. He asserted that Gulf countries have expressed high satisfaction with U.S. support.