American consumers could face higher prices for fresh strawberries this winter if a petition filed by a coalition of Florida producers is approved by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The group, Strawberry Growers for Free Trade, claims that Mexican exporters are selling fresh winter strawberries at unfairly low prices, a practice known as undercutting.
The petition centers on the imposition of an "antidumping duty," a tariff the U.S. government can apply to foreign goods sold at prices significantly lower than comparable domestic products. According to the petition, which was filed on December 31, 2025, and published in the Federal Register in February, imports of winter strawberries from Mexico are being sold or are likely to be sold in the U.S. at less than fair market value. The growers argue this practice is causing, or threatening to cause, material injury to the domestic winter strawberry industry.
Mexico supplies approximately 95% of strawberries imported into the U.S., while Florida and California account for about 98% of domestic production. Strawberries are a significant part of the American diet, with consumers eating around eight pounds per person annually, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. While traditionally a summer fruit, year-round availability is made possible by production in warmer regions, including Mexico.
The Strawberry Growers for Free Trade contends that the price of imported Mexican strawberries is approximately 18.32% lower than it should be and is urging the Department of Commerce to increase tariffs to rectify this imbalance.
Marc Busch, a professor of International Business Diplomacy at Georgetown University and an expert in international trade policy, noted that antidumping duty petitions are filed frequently. "They don’t cost an awful lot of money to file, and they create economic uncertainty," Busch said. He explained that such petitions can be effective even if rejected, citing the steel industry where the mere filing of a petition can influence stock prices or lead producers to scale back operations due to potential future tariffs. It remains unclear if Mexican strawberry producers would alter their production in response to this petition.
James Mann, a partner at global management consultant Kearney, anticipates that the situation will impact prices. "Mexican growers are already preparing for the tariff eventuality and are cutting back some of their planting practices, thereby reducing supply," Mann stated. "We’ll likely see the result of that cutting back and subsequent price increases in the November to early springtime frame."
The Department of Commerce's investigation aims to determine the reasons behind the lower export prices from Mexico. Busch suggested that factors beyond intentional undercutting could be at play, such as weather conditions or labor availability in the U.S.
Even if the Department of Commerce imposes the full 18.32% tariff, consumers might not experience the entire increase. Mexican exporters could lower their prices, or importers might accept smaller profit margins to absorb some of the cost. However, if exporters and importers are unwilling to significantly reduce their profits, consumers are more likely to feel the financial impact.
Based on the average retail price of $3.80 per pound for fresh strawberries, a full 18.32% tariff could translate to an increase of approximately 70 cents per pound.
Should Mexican exporters reduce their supply, the U.S. domestic industry might struggle to meet demand. Mann added, "You’ll see fewer growers, and that’ll translate into higher prices." He noted that it is unlikely another country could easily replace Mexican supply due to the fragile nature of strawberries and the time required for transport.
Busch suggested that U.S. strawberry producers are primarily focused on their profit margins rather than consumer affordability. "Scarcity increases prices," he said.
While Busch does not expect the Department of Commerce to implement the full 18.32% tariff, suggesting that an investigation into Mexican growers' data might cast doubt on the undercutting allegations, the outcome remains uncertain for consumers anticipating their winter fruit supply.