The United States has experienced a significant decrease in its child population, with approximately 1.8 million fewer children nationwide since 2020. This demographic shift, however, is not uniform across the country, as the South remains the sole region where the under-18 population has grown.
Between 2020 and 2025, the portion of Americans under the age of 18 increased by 1.1% in the South, totaling 303,969 individuals born or relocated to the region. This growth contrasts sharply with the national trend, which saw the child population decline by 2.4% during the same period, according to U.S. Census Bureau data analyzed by Axios. The decline was more pronounced in other regions, with Western states losing 1,015,068 children (a 5.7% decrease), the Northeast experiencing a 4.1% drop, and the Midwest seeing a 3.9% decline in its child population.
Population changes are influenced by both birth rates and migration patterns. The recent demographic trends align with broader migration trends observed in the U.S. since the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw significant population growth in Southern communities as people relocated from northern and coastal states. The South's overall population grew by 6% between 2020 and 2025, outpacing the national growth rate of 3.1%.
The growth in the South's child population is also linked to an increase in adults of child-rearing and family-building age moving into the region. It remains unclear, however, the precise balance between new births and migration contributing to this increase.
Within the South, the growth in child population was primarily concentrated in larger metropolitan areas. Counties in these urban centers saw a 1.5% increase in their under-18 population, amounting to 361,757 individuals. Conversely, smaller southern cities and non-metropolitan counties experienced declines in their child populations, with smaller cities seeing a 0.7% decrease and rural counties a 2.2% decrease.