Ukraine's top intelligence chief, Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, predicts that Russia may have only two years left to sustain its war effort, citing significant troop losses, declining morale, and economic difficulties. Ivashchenko stated that Russia's military and economic resources are likely to be depleted by 2028.
Western intelligence services reportedly estimate that Russia is losing 6,000 more soldiers than it can recruit each month. Ukrainian figures suggest Russia has suffered over 1.5 million troops lost since 2022, with approximately 450,000 deaths. Ivashchenko indicated that daily casualty figures, with around 60 percent killed in action, are straining Russia's ability to replenish its forces.
This level of attrition, Ivashchenko suggested, has led to low morale among both soldiers and the Russian population, with many people reportedly not supporting the war.
Economically, Ukraine's strategy has involved targeting Russia's oil infrastructure. Recent reports indicate that Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Rostov-on-Don and three air defense assets. This follows an earlier incident at the Ryazan Oil Refinery, one of Russia's largest. Approximately 40 percent of Russia's oil-refining capacity has reportedly been disabled, leading to fuel shortages and a ban on diesel and gasoline exports.
Ivashchenko also highlighted broader economic challenges facing Russia, including labor shortages, a growing budget deficit, and a deteriorating banking system. Despite these issues, he acknowledged that Russia still possesses sufficient resources to continue the conflict through 2027 or 2028.
These assessments come amid continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas. Ukrainian officials reported that five people were killed and 67 wounded by a Russian drone strike on a shopping mall in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukrainian Interior Minister Ivan Vyhivskyi stated the attack occurred when streets were crowded.
President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilians to inflict maximum damage and pressure Ukraine into concessions. He reiterated Ukraine's need for interceptors, particularly for ballistic missiles, which remain difficult to counter. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha described the targeting of civilians as a "tactic of coercion."
