Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who won a landslide victory in 2019, is facing increasing pressure to hold presidential elections amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. Under Ukrainian law, elections are suspended during martial law, which was enacted following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. However, some political figures, including Ukraine's former defense minister, have publicly called for elections to proceed even during wartime.
Analysts suggest that Zelenskyy would likely win any election held under current conditions, citing his leadership during the war. "He would defeat any other candidate," said one analyst, who noted that in past years, potential rivals like General Valerii Zaluzhnyi might have been seen as stronger contenders to manage the war effort. Zaluzhnyi, who previously stated he had no political ambitions, reportedly informed Zelenskyy in July that he would run if elections were scheduled for the fall, according to a report by Ukrainska Pravda, which cited sources close to both men. These sources indicated Zaluzhnyi's change of heart stemmed from a desire not to betray public trust.
Despite such assessments, recent polling data presents a more nuanced picture. A poll by the firm SOCIS indicated that in a hypothetical election, Zelenskyy would lead in the first round with 22% of the vote. However, this is a narrow margin, with General Zaluzhnyi polling at 21% and current minister Fedorov at 13%. Another official, Kyrylo Budanov, chief of staff for the President, has not publicly indicated any intention to run.
The legal framework and political realities of wartime elections remain significant obstacles. The suspension of elections is a measure designed to ensure national unity and security during a period of intense conflict. The debate over holding elections continues, balancing democratic principles with the exigencies of national defense.