Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, is advocating for the revival of the cancelled northern leg of the High Speed 2 (HS2) rail project, a plan that has drawn criticism regarding its substantial cost and projected impact on train speeds. The HS2 network is currently under construction between London and Birmingham, following the decision by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in 2023 to scrap the extension to Manchester.
Burnham, often referred to as the 'King of the North,' is exploring a funding model similar to London's Crossrail, involving a mix of public and private investment to advance the northern phase of the project. However, critics express concerns that these plans could lead to slower train services and increased business rates, exacerbating the already significant cost overruns of the HS2 initiative, which has seen its budget balloon to an estimated £100 billion.
The initial projection for constructing HS2 from London to Birmingham, including the now-abandoned extensions to Leeds and Manchester, was approximately £33 billion in 2011 prices. The northern leg alone was slated to cost £36 billion before its cancellation. HS2 engineering expert Trevor Parkin has estimated the current cost for this section at around £60 billion.
Burnham has indicated his desire to reintroduce the northern leg, a sentiment he voiced last month. In 2024, while serving as Mayor of Greater Manchester, he commissioned a report that proposed a 50-mile 'Midlands-North West Rail Link.' This proposed route, running from Lichfield in Staffordshire to High Legh in Cheshire, would utilize land already acquired for HS2 and connect to new rail lines serving Liverpool and Manchester.
According to the report, this new line could be 25% to 40% less expensive than the original HS2 northern leg and aims to attract more private sector investment. Trains on this route are anticipated to take approximately 15 minutes longer to reach Manchester from London compared to the original HS2 plan, but would still be about 30 minutes faster than current services, which exceed two hours. Cost savings could also be achieved through modifications to track types. ## Project History and Criticisms
Concerns have been raised by figures such as Andrew Gilligan, head of transport at the Policy Exchange think tank and a former special adviser to Rishi Sunak. He argues that reviving the northern leg of HS2 would cost approximately £60 billion and would do little to address the North's actual transportation needs, diverting funds from more pressing railway improvements. John Smith, founder and former chief executive of GB Railfreight, also voiced skepticism about the financial feasibility, citing the extensive civil engineering required, particularly for rebuilding Manchester Piccadilly station, and the ongoing costs at Euston.
Conversely, some proponents see potential benefits. Extending HS2 to Crewe, for example, is viewed by some as offering significant advantages for railway users, including increased network capacity, support for rail freight, and economic growth. This perspective suggests that extending the line to Crewe, with existing parliamentary approval, would be a boost for the railway sector and the wider economy. Henri Murison, chief executive of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, noted that a business-led review proposed an alternative to HS2, which received in-principle support for longer-term development after Northern Powerhouse Rail is built. He emphasized the need for immediate action on new line sections, particularly between Crewe and the Midlands.
Rail expert Mark Smith, founder of The Man In Seat 61 website, commented that HS2's original objective was to connect major cities with a high-capacity railway, freeing up existing lines for regional services and freight. He suggested that reinstating Phase 2 of the project, which was planned to be less expensive per mile than Phase 1 due to less tunneling, could significantly improve the overall cost-benefit ratio.
Government's Position and HS2 Timeline
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander has stated that the government's immediate priority is completing HS2 between London and Birmingham. Subsequent priorities include enhancing rail links across the North of England, with a £45 billion budget allocated over the next two decades. Alexander also confirmed that a study is underway to address capacity constraints on the West Coast Main Line between Birmingham and Manchester, a study she agreed to with Burnham.
In May, Alexander reported that HS2's total cost could exceed £100 billion, with an opening potentially delayed until 2039. She attributed the significant increases in time and cost to the failures of successive Conservative governments. The revised projected cost for completing the railway ranges from £87.7 billion to £102.7 billion in 2025 prices. The original timeline targeted a 2026 launch, but the new schedule aims for services between May 2036 and October 2039.
To manage costs, HS2 trains will operate at a reduced maximum speed of 199 mph (320 km/h), down from the original design of 224 mph (360 km/h). This adjustment is expected to save between £1 billion and £2.5 billion through factors like reduced testing and earlier service commencement. Services between Old Oak Common in west London and Birmingham's Curzon Street station are slated to begin between May 2036 and October 2039. High-speed services to London Euston station are not expected until between May 2040 and December 2043. The overall budget includes work at Euston, which has been paused since March 2023, with the government actively seeking private investment for the site.
The project's history is marked by numerous changes and cost escalations. Established in January 2009 by the Labour party to assess the need for a new high-speed line, a consultation on the route was published in 2010. Despite initial concerns over cost and environmental impact, the government decided to proceed in 2012. However, the eastern leg to Leeds and the East Midlands was scrapped in November 2021, and the Birmingham to Crewe section was delayed by two years in March 2023. The decision to scrap the northern leg entirely in October 2023 by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak due to soaring costs marked a significant turning point.
A Department for Transport spokesperson recently stated that HS2 will free up significant capacity on the southern West Coast Main Line by utilizing dedicated new tracks between London and Birmingham. The department is also exploring methods to enhance capacity beyond Birmingham through improved service patterns, timetables, and longer rolling stock, in conjunction with its commitment to a new line between Birmingham and Manchester.