President Donald Trump has indicated a decision point is approaching regarding Iran, stating in a recent interview that "It's getting to be decision time" and musing whether to "finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" Trump later suggested a timeframe for action, saying, "You'll see Iran in a couple of weeks," pointing to the period after the November 3rd midterm elections.
US and Israeli military planners have reportedly developed plans for a brief post-election campaign targeting Iran's nuclear, missile, and energy infrastructure, with some officials believing a three-day series of strikes could compel concessions.
However, Miad Maleki, a former Treasury Department official who focused on sanctions against Iran, argues against further military action or a new deal, advocating instead for sustained economic pressure. Maleki contends that the Islamic Republic's survival is contingent on conflict and that another round of attacks would provide the regime with a unifying war to distract from internal issues.
"The Islamic Republic is built to fight, not to govern; it survives when it is fighting," Maleki stated. He cited the regime's response to protests over a declining rial in January, which reportedly resulted in over 30,000 deaths according to an internal Health Ministry count, and the subsequent "deadliest crackdown in its history." The ongoing conflict, which began on February 28th after the death of the supreme leader, has been accompanied by an 88-day internet shutdown, arrests of over 6,500 individuals, and at least 39 political executions by late May, according to Amnesty International.
Maleki notes that unprecedented pressure has been placed on Iran since then. The country's crude oil loadings have fallen drastically, from approximately 2 million barrels per day in March to 740,000 in July, with no loadings reported since September, according to industry tanker trackers. The rial has depreciated significantly, losing a quarter of its value since late August and trading at about 2.7 million to the dollar, while consumer prices rose by 89.8% in September compared to the previous year.
The regime is reportedly struggling to meet its financial obligations, including payroll for workers in oil, manufacturing, and security sectors, as well as for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps itself. Admiral Brad Cooper of US Central Command indicated that Tehran is "withholding salaries, pensions and benefits."
Previous attempts at a deal have proven unsuccessful, according to Maleki. In June, a joint US-Iran memorandum aimed to "terminate all types of sanctions" and included a provision for a reconstruction fund of at least $300 billion. Treasury subsequently authorized Iranian oil sales payable in dollars. However, Maleki asserts that three weeks later, Tehran violated the ceasefire by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Maleki's proposed strategy involves maintaining the current blockade and sanctions, rather than exchanging them for a deal that would restore Iran's oil income. He suggests that strikes should be reserved for direct threats to Americans or allies. Furthermore, he advocates for supporting the Iranian people by providing them with access to information via satellite terminals and targeting the regime's instruments of repression, such as the Basij militia and state broadcasters, rather than critical infrastructure like power plants.
"The regime won’t accept Washington’s terms — no enrichment, the 60% uranium out of the country, a cap on its missiles — until it fears its own people more than American bombs," Maleki concluded. "Any deal it would sign before then is one it can live with."