Former President Donald Trump is poised to deliver a strong message to NATO allies, warning them against what he describes as "playing funny math" with their defense spending commitments as he prepares to meet with leaders of the military bloc. This comes as several key European allies are reportedly lagging behind their pledged contributions.
Trump's focus on defense spending was a significant issue during his previous term and is expected to remain a priority should he return to office. The former president is likely to criticize countries he believes are not making substantial progress in bolstering their military capabilities, particularly in light of NATO's refusal to allow the U.S. to use its air bases for operations related to the Iran conflict.
The core of the issue lies in NATO's defense spending goals. While the alliance has seen an increase in countries meeting the 2% of GDP threshold since Trump's first term, with projections indicating all members could reach it on paper by 2025, significant disparities persist. However, a more ambitious target was set last year: all nations are to boost their defense spending to 5% of their GDP by 2030. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is expected to emphasize that members are on track to meet this goal.
European Nations Lagging on Pledges
Despite the collective agreement, four of NATO's five largest European members—the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Spain—are reportedly struggling to meet their commitments. Factors such as sluggish economic growth and internal political divisions are cited as reasons for these nations falling short of the 5% GDP defense spending goal.
The United Kingdom, despite being a nuclear power and historically possessing one of Europe's strongest militaries, now faces its smallest army in over two centuries. According to the Atlantic Council, the UK struggles to allocate 2.31% of its GDP to defense. Although the UK recently announced plans to increase defense spending by an additional $20 billion, the source of these funds remains unclear, and the total is still projected to fall short of even 3% of GDP. British officials have acknowledged the difficulty in meeting the 5% pledge, setting a revised, yet still potentially unrealistic, goal of 3.5% by 2035.
France, which has historically struggled in land wars, barely reached the 2% mark last year. Paris aims to increase its defense spending by only half a point by the end of the decade, leaving it halfway to meeting the 2030 target. Italy is on a similar trajectory, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expected to outline a plan to raise spending from approximately 2% to 2.8% of GDP this year.
In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has resisted increasing defense expenditure beyond the current 2.1% of GDP.
Regional Differences in Defense Spending
Geographically, nations located closer to Russia tend to allocate a larger portion of their GDP to defense. Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are among the top spenders, with Warsaw leading at 4.5% of its GDP dedicated to defense. These countries are investing more of their GDP than the United States, which has proposed a 4.6% increase for the current year, though its realization is uncertain.
Germany, NATO's largest economy, has outlined plans to reach approximately 5% of GDP by 2030, according to a budget draft. However, other nations, including the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Albania, have reportedly inflated their figures to meet the 2% goal by including non-military expenses like roadwork. NATO is reportedly seeking clear explanations from these countries at the upcoming summit.
A senior NATO official emphasized the need for a credible path toward increased spending, noting that maintaining current levels near 2% means allies are not on that path. The 5% pledge from NATO requires the majority of spending to be on direct military assets, such as personnel, weapons, and equipment, with an additional 1.5% allocated for broader security and defense investments, including critical infrastructure and civil preparedness. The divergence in spending priorities is expected to increase tensions within the alliance as leaders convene to discuss strengthening military forces.