The Trump administration recently announced a significant civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, which would permit the kingdom to utilize American technology for nuclear power development and potentially allow for uranium enrichment on its territory. However, the deal faces congressional review and has generated apprehension in Israel, particularly regarding the absence of any mention of normalizing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel in the initial announcement.
Former President Donald Trump addressed these concerns in a social media post, stating that the nuclear deal is contingent upon Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, a framework for normalizing relations between Israel and Arab nations. This conditionality, introduced after the agreement's signing, has raised questions about the administration's intent and potential changes to the deal's terms. Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum, suggested that Trump might seek a commitment from Saudi Arabia to explore joining the Abraham Accords at a later stage, contingent on progress toward a Palestinian state, which could leave Israel in a difficult position.
This development comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington. The meeting is anticipated to be tense, with disagreements arising over several key issues. The renewed conflict with Iran is a significant point of divergence. While Israel views the ongoing conflict as necessary to counter Iran's nuclear program and regional proxies, seeking a regime change, Trump appears to be looking for an exit strategy, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, an issue of less concern to Israel.
Israel was reportedly caught by surprise by the announcement of the Saudi nuclear deal. The initial agreement focused solely on nuclear power and infrastructure, without mentioning normalization with Israel. This contrasts with Trump's previous policy stance, which indicated that a U.S.-Saudi deal would include normalization. Koplow noted that this situation, coupled with Trump's public assertions of being in charge, may be creating stress in the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu.
Koplow suggested that Israel may have miscalculated its relationship with Trump, having placed significant faith in him as a staunch ally. Despite awareness of Trump's transactional nature and policy volatility, many Israeli officials and citizens believed Israel would be an exception. The current situation with the Saudi nuclear deal indicates that Israel may not be exempt from Trump's shifting priorities.
The primary concern for Israel regarding the Saudi nuclear deal extends beyond the lack of immediate normalization. The agreement could potentially permit other regional countries, such as the UAE, which have signed more restrictive nuclear agreements, to pursue similar capabilities. This scenario hinges on the assumption that Saudi Arabia will continue on a path of modernization and moderation, leading to improved relations with Israel. However, if this trajectory shifts, the provision of a nuclear program to Saudi Arabia could have irreversible consequences, drawing parallels to the origins of Iran's nuclear program, which began as a civilian initiative supported by the U.S. during the Shah's era. The potential for Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear enrichment capabilities, combined with the uncertain prospects for normalization, is causing significant alarm in Israel.