Despite a substantial loss in the recent midterm elections, President Donald Trump may seek to reassert his influence through actions abroad, particularly in relation to Iran and Israel, according to analysis from the BBC.
While the election results limit his domestic power to dictate policy and disrupt opponents, Trump retains broad executive authority over the U.S. military. His history of unpredictable policy shifts suggests that his post-election actions are difficult to forecast, but a consistent theme has been his aversion to appearing as a "loser."
This electoral setback could tempt Trump to pursue foreign policy actions he can frame as decisive victories, potentially overshadowing the midterm results. In the weeks leading up to the elections, heightened rhetoric and military deployments had increased speculation about a potential renewed conflict with Iran. A limited bombing raid on an Iranian island in the Gulf occurred on the eve of the elections.
Concerns over potential military options, including the bombing of civilian infrastructure, were raised by some U.S. officials, who warned of "devastating escalation." Such actions could be considered war crimes and potentially provoke retaliatory strikes from Iran against U.S. allies in the Gulf.
Iran's government closely monitors U.S. political developments and has expressed satisfaction that the economic impact of its actions in the Strait of Hormuz, including rising prices for oil and fertilizers, has become a domestic issue in the U.S. The Speaker of Iran's parliament issued a warning on social media, indicating that any U.S. government "betrayal" of public will against war would be met with severe consequences.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, nearing the formation of a new government in Israel, has reportedly urged Trump to engage in renewed military action against Iran. Should a significant conflict escalate and directly impact Israelis, Netanyahu could potentially leverage the situation to form a broader unity government.