Democrats have secured a majority in the U.S. Senate, driven by gains in states that were once considered Republican strongholds. Victories in Georgia, South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, and Texas were underpinned by shifts in key demographic groups and voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the current administration, according to ABC News Voter Polls.
Georgia
In Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff is projected to win reelection. Ossoff improved his vote margins among white voters by approximately 10 percentage points compared to his 2022 victory and saw a significant increase in support from younger voters, who backed him by 69 points, a substantial rise from 21 points in 2022. He also secured the support of about 6 in 10 independents. Voters expressing anger about the nation's direction overwhelmingly supported Ossoff, as did those who rated the economy negatively or disapproved of President Trump's job performance.
South Carolina
Democrat Annie Andrews is projected to defeat incumbent Republican Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina. While Black voters supported Andrews by a wide margin, similar to previous elections, white voters showed a significant shift towards the Democratic candidate, narrowing the gap considerably from past Republican advantages. Women also leaned towards Andrews, and while Graham won men, his margin was significantly smaller than in previous elections. Older voters, a key demographic, still favored Graham, but with a reduced margin compared to 2022. Andrews also attracted a small but notable percentage of Republican voters from the previous election cycle.
Iowa
Josh Turek is projected to win the Iowa Senate race, marking the first Democratic senator from the state since 2008. Turek's victory was bolstered by strong support from independents, a group he led by approximately 20 percentage points, and by attracting a portion of voters who supported Trump in 2024. While party-switching among core Democrats and Republicans was limited, Turek outperformed the GOP candidate among Republicans. Younger voters, aged 18-29, showed overwhelming support for Turek, and the 30-44 age group also favored him. Voters aged 45-64 leaned Republican, and older voters were closely divided.
Ohio
Sherrod Brown is projected to retain his Senate seat in Ohio. His victory coalition was built on strong disapproval of the economy, perceived alignment of his opponent with Trump, and concerns over high costs. Brown performed well with women and saw significant gains among younger voters, reversing previous trends. While he narrowly lost men, his margin of loss was smaller than in prior elections. Independents provided a substantial boost to Brown, with his margin of support among this group increasing significantly over previous cycles. White voters in Ohio, who had previously favored Republicans by double digits, were nearly evenly split. Brown also saw an increase in support from Black voters and maintained a strong margin among college-educated voters, while improving his standing with those without a college degree.
Kansas
Adam Hamilton is projected to become the first Democratic U.S. Senator from Kansas since 1932. Voters expressing anger about the country's direction and those who disapprove of President Trump strongly supported Hamilton. While Republicans largely backed the incumbent, a notable percentage of GOP voters crossed over to support Hamilton. Women favored Hamilton by a 10-percentage point margin, while men narrowly supported the Republican. Similar to other races, a portion of 2024 Trump voters shifted their support to Hamilton.
Texas
In Texas, James Talarico, an educator and state representative, is projected to defeat Ken Paxton. Talarico's win was significantly driven by younger voters, who supported him at a rate of nearly 80%. Female voters also favored Talarico, while men were nearly evenly split. He made gains among Black and Hispanic Texans compared to previous Democratic candidates. Voters who rated the economy negatively or viewed the state of democracy as the top issue overwhelmingly supported Talarico. A majority of Texas Senate voters disapproved of President Trump, and those voters heavily backed Talarico. Additionally, voters who felt their financial situation had worsened over the past two years largely supported the Democratic candidate.