Prediction market Kalshi is asserting a significant success rate for its election forecasts during the 2026 midterms, stating that its favored candidates won or were leading in 98% of races. The platform saw a total trading volume exceeding $2.5 billion across its election markets, a substantial increase from $1.3 billion in the 2024 election cycle.
Kalshi reported that its markets were faster than traditional polling in calling election outcomes. The market for control of the House reached 99% certainty by 8:18 p.m. ET on election night, while the Senate market passed the same threshold at 9:02 p.m. ET. The company indicated it had signaled a Democratic advantage months prior to the election, with traders favoring Democrats to take control of the Senate starting in April, when the likelihood of a "blue wave" rose above 80%.
Several individual races highlighted the market's predictive ability. In Texas, traders favored Democrat James Talarico for the Senate seat starting in mid-August, a race that ultimately generated nearly $198 million in trading volume, making it the most heavily traded individual contest of the cycle. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson was favored by traders since August before unseating Republican Senator Susan Collins. Similarly, in Kansas, traders favored Democrat Adam Hamilton in the final five days of the race, despite the state's long history of electing Republicans to the Senate.
Kalshi's analysis, based on market prices at 5 p.m. ET on election night before votes were counted, indicated a 99% success rate for House contests, 97% for Senate races, and 97% for gubernatorial races. The report also claimed Kalshi's forecasts outperformed several major polling models, including those from The Economist and VoteHub, when measured by Brier scores. The company noted that hundreds of millions of dollars have already been traded on its markets predicting the 2028 presidential nominees.