Trump's 'Hostile Act' Threat Looms as Carney Addresses EU Parliament

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to address the European Parliament on Thursday, with his speech carrying added weight following U.S. President Donald Trump's assertion that Canada's potential associate membership in the EU could be a "hostile act."

Trump's remarks on Wednesday in Charlotte, North Carolina, also included threats of imposing further tariffs on Europe if the proposed move is seen as having a "bad intention." He suggested the U.S. might cut off trade with Europe in certain sectors, calling the prospect of Canada joining the EU "laughable" and labeling Canada a "terrible trade partner."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had proposed making Canada the EU's first associate member on Wednesday, a significant overture signaling a desire to elevate the relationship with Canada to the "highest level possible." This proposal comes as Trump's trade policies and rhetoric have been pushing Ottawa to diversify its economic ties away from the United States.

For decades, Canada's economy has been closely integrated with that of the United States. However, Trump's imposition of tariffs, demands for economic concessions, and past suggestions of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state are now incentivizing Ottawa to reduce its dependence on its southern neighbor and pursue deeper economic, security, and political relationships with Europe.

Von der Leyen's proposal for associate membership, a status not currently defined in EU treaties and requiring creation, envisions an "Alliance for the Future" that goes beyond the existing free trade agreement to encompass "common prosperity and economic security." Carney is expected to discuss this new relationship in more detail when he hosts EU leaders for a summit in Montreal on October 29-30.

Canada, which sends approximately 70% of its exports to the United States, is particularly vulnerable to Trump's tariffs. While Ottawa has retaliated and rejected demands that Carney argues threaten Canadian sovereignty, Europe has adopted a different approach, largely shelving retaliation and accepting tariffs on most EU exports to the U.S.

Carney has consistently advocated for middle powers to resist economic coercion. In January, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he warned that negotiating alone with a dominant power leads to negotiating "from weakness" and accepting unfavorable terms. Trump publicly rebuked Carney the following day.

Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada's ambassador-designate to the EU, clarified that Canada is not seeking full EU membership, which would necessitate surrendering sovereignty. Instead, Ottawa aims to "get as close as we possibly can" to Europe while enhancing its independence. The specific implications of associate membership remain to be defined through negotiation.

Canada has already taken steps toward closer integration with the EU, becoming the first non-European country to join the EU's €150 billion ($173 billion) SAFE defense procurement program. Discussions have also covered enhanced cooperation in areas such as energy, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, and digital trade.

Experts suggest that the Trump administration's policies are prompting both Canada and the EU to consider a future with less U.S. leadership. Daniel Béland, a political-science professor at McGill University, noted that this situation encourages them to "act accordingly." Nelson Wiseman, a professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, added that Carney's handling of Trump has garnered European attention, with Europeans viewing Canada as a nation that understands the U.S. particularly well due to their deep ties. Carney's willingness to resist Trump's demands has reinforced this perception.

Béland anticipates that Carney may avoid directly naming Trump in his address but will likely make his target clear through his broader arguments. He added that the world, including the White House, will be watching Carney's speech.