The North Atlantic Treaty Organization convenes in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday for a summit that will test the alliance's unity, a key tenet U.S. President Donald Trump has frequently challenged. The meeting occurs against a backdrop of Trump's consistent criticism of allies' defense contributions and a Pentagon-led review of U.S. troop deployments across Europe.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has sought to ease tensions, stating that European allies have responded to U.S. calls for increased defense investment, noting a 20% rise in spending by Europe and Canada over the past year. Rutte has welcomed what he described as Trump's ambition for NATO and has called for a "defense industrial revolution," adopting language similar to U.S. officials like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
"This is NATO 3.0," Rutte stated, previewing the summit. "More European-led, equalizing defense spending, but still with the U.S. firmly rooted in NATO."
European officials indicate the summit will focus on implementing goals established at the prior year's meeting in The Hague, where allies committed to a 10-year plan to raise defense spending to 5% of their gross domestic product. However, analysts suggest that the absence of a clear victory to celebrate, unlike at The Hague, may introduce uncertainty in Ankara, given Trump's ongoing expressions of dissatisfaction.
"The U.S. spends more money on NATO than any other country, by far, to protect them, without getting any benefit," Trump stated last week.
The summit also addresses the ongoing war in Ukraine. Allies are expected to signal support for Kyiv, and Trump is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy has attributed recent Russian attacks on Kyiv to Russian President Vladimir Putin's intent to divide the alliance. He emphasized the importance of a NATO decision on supporting Ukrainian air defenses, noting that a lack of missile supplies, such as Patriot systems, emboldens Russia.
"As long as the missiles for the Patriots remain in the warehouses of allies, this only encourages Russia to continue destroying residential buildings," Zelenskyy posted on social media.
Laura Galante, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, described the situation as an "extraordinary backdrop" for the summit. "The largest wild card is how the allies react to Ukraine and Zelenskyy being there," she said.
U.S. Military Footprint Review
The summit follows Hegseth's remarks at a June NATO meeting in Brussels, where he criticized allies' defense contributions as "shameful" and announced a six-month review of the U.S. troop presence in Europe. The U.S. military has indicated it will adjust its commitment to the NATO Force Model, a framework for asset contribution during emergencies. Changes to the U.S. force posture, including the cancellation of a rotation of 5,000 soldiers to Poland, could create short-term gaps, according to analysts. While Trump publicly reversed the decision to cancel the Poland deployment, the troops have not yet been deployed.
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whittaker stated in an interview that the U.S. military will "do less" in Europe due to demands in other regions. "The target is that Europe takes over the conventional defense of the European continent," Whittaker said. "So what would you expect if they take it over, you would expect the U.S. to do less. We're not going away. We're just doing less because we have global requirements and global challenges."
Cameron McMillan, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, questioned this logic, arguing that U.S. brigade combat teams, previously withdrawn from Romania and slated for withdrawal from Germany, are crucial for deterring Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. "Unless we plan on having a bunch of Abrams tanks swim to Taiwan in a Taiwan contingency, it has much more value in Europe," McMillan commented.
Tensions Among Leaders
The president's tendency to penalize allies for perceived slights raises doubts about a display of unity in Ankara. Trump has lodged complaints regarding defense contributions and the allies' involvement in the U.S. campaign in Iran. The summit presents an opportunity for personal interactions among the 32 heads of state. It will be the first meeting between Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni since they publicly exchanged criticisms regarding a disputed interaction at a G7 summit.
Meloni, a Trump ally, denied his claim that she "begged" for a photo, asserting in a social media video that the president "doesn't show the same determination toward the enemies of the West or the enemies of the United States," a likely reference to Russia.
Ukraine's Role
Sources indicate that allies are considering financial commitments to Ukraine amid escalating conflict and Kyiv's successful strikes within Russia. Analysts and officials suggest Ukraine has shifted the war's momentum, with recent reports indicating mounting Russian casualties and stalled territorial gains. The Center for Strategic and International Studies reported that Moscow has lost net territory in recent months.
"This is a pretty pivotal moment, and you also have a lot of the drone capability that I think allies look at as their forward deployment mechanism in conflict," said Galante. "It would be important to have the Ukrainians there and saying, 'Here's what works and here's what doesn't.'"
