President Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to accept high gas prices, stating that the ongoing conflict with Iran takes priority over immediate concerns about energy costs for voters. This stance was articulated during the first-ever Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where Trump addressed the cost of living as a key issue for voters.
Despite record-high diesel prices, climbing mortgage rates, and increasing grocery costs, Republicans face challenges in campaigning on inflation. Polls suggest that a significant majority of Americans, over 70 percent, disapprove of President Trump's handling of inflation, a figure that has increased since he took office. While some Republican speakers at the convention attributed the cost-of-living crisis to Democrats, this narrative struggles to resonate with voters who are more likely to blame the current administration.
Trump's administration has escalated both the conflict with Iran and trade wars with allies, actions that have contributed to rising consumer prices. In his remarks, Trump acknowledged voter concerns about gasoline prices but stated that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was a greater priority. This approach deviates from historical presidential efforts to mitigate election-year price increases.
The war in Iran, initiated in February 2026, has been identified as a primary driver of the first sustained decline in Americans' purchasing power since 2022. An estimate from Brown's Watson School suggests that the conflict has cost the average U.S. household over $780 due to elevated energy prices. Politically, this has impacted Trump's approval ratings, with his net approval on inflation dropping significantly.
While economic trends leading up to an election can influence voter behavior, Trump has considerable power to impact affordability. Research suggests that reaching a ceasefire or peace deal with Iran could lower energy costs. Throughout 2026, oil prices have consistently decreased when the conflict has cooled and risen when it has intensified. Despite an opportunity to ease fuel prices following a potential ceasefire proposal from Iran in early September, Trump opted to launch new strikes, which sent crude prices above $100 a barrel.
In addition to the Iran conflict, Trump's trade policies have also contributed to higher consumer prices. Tariffs imposed on imports have led to increased inflation rates. Although the Supreme Court ruled against the constitutionality of some tariffs, the administration enacted new levies using alternative legal authorities. Recently, a trade war with Canada, involving reciprocal tariffs, has been initiated. These trade actions send a message to voters that the administration is not prioritizing the reduction of living costs.
While Trump has promised a $5,000 check to every American adult if Republicans maintain control of Congress, this proposal faces challenges due to concerns about deficits and their potential impact on inflation and interest rates, further exacerbating cost-of-living issues. Voters are increasingly bearing the brunt of these economic policies, with potential consequences for Republican candidates in the upcoming elections.