President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that grocery prices are decreasing, citing his administration's economic performance. However, a closer examination of consumer price data reveals a more complex picture, with only egg prices showing a significant decline while most other food categories continue to rise.
During a recent interview with Fox News, Trump stated that "costs are coming way down," specifically mentioning groceries. He reiterated similar sentiments expressed in previous remarks in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and aboard Air Force One, often referencing a drop in egg prices. He suggested that the economy under his administration deserved an "A+".
Trump's assertion about falling prices appears to be primarily based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) findings released in late July. These reports indicated that egg prices were down 0.8% between May and June and 27.9% lower in June compared to the previous year. This decrease in egg prices can be largely attributed to the resolution of avian flu outbreaks that had previously caused a spike in their cost.
However, experts note that the overall trend for food prices is one of increase, not decrease. Richard Volpe, a professor of agribusiness at Cal Poly and former economist at the USDA Economic Research Service, explained that while eggs are a widely purchased and perishable item, they represent a relatively small portion of overall grocery spending. The USDA's data indicates eggs account for approximately 0.8% of an average grocery basket's cost, compared to 4.7% for beef and 10% for fruits and vegetables.
Rising Costs Across Most Groceries
According to the Economic Research Service (ERS), food price inflation is generally increasing. For the remainder of the year, prices for all groceries are forecast to rise by around 2.7%, with restaurant food prices expected to increase by approximately 3.5%. Volpe emphasized that rising food prices are the norm.
Data from the ERS report highlights specific categories experiencing price hikes. For instance, beef and veal prices were 11.8% higher in June 2026 than in June 2025, with a projected annual increase of 10.7% from the start of the year. Pork costs saw a roughly 2.4% increase in June compared to the previous year, with an expected annual rise of 1.6%. Fresh vegetables were 9.9% more expensive in June year-over-year, and a 6.8% increase is anticipated for the full year. Fruit prices, despite a monthly decrease, were up 2% in June compared to the prior year and are predicted to rise by another 2% by year's end.
Other categories seeing price increases include packaged sugar and candy, with an expected 7.2% rise in 2026, and nonalcoholic drinks, which were 2.9% more expensive in June and are forecast to increase by a total of 3.9% by the end of the year.
These figures suggest that shoppers are more likely to notice rising prices in the meat and produce sections of their grocery stores, even as the egg aisle provides a rare exception.
Impact on Households
The average U.S. household spends about 12% of its income on food. However, this percentage is considerably higher for lower-income households, particularly those participating in food assistance programs, who may spend between 20% to 25% of their income on food. Volpe noted that these price increases disproportionately affect these households, impacting food affordability more significantly.
If overall grocery costs increase by the projected 2.7% to 3.9% for the year, a household spending $100 on groceries in the previous year could see their bill rise to between $102.70 and $103.90. For a family of four, this could translate to an additional $40 per month on groceries, a sum comparable to an increase in an internet bill, which typically elicits negative reactions from consumers.