Former U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed credit for the electoral performance of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who appears to have weathered a predicted defeat and is poised for a potential win. Trump stated that his public endorsement of Netanyahu, issued just nine days before the Israeli election on October 18, shifted the political landscape.
"When President Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu, the whole tide turned, and now, rather than a decisive defeat for a great prime minister, it looks like a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu," Trump posted.
Early results indicated that Netanyahu's Likud party and its allies performed better than anticipated, with their right-wing bloc projected to secure 53 seats in the Knesset. This contrasts with the 48 seats projected for a coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party. However, to form a government, a majority of at least 61 seats is required, meaning Netanyahu still faces significant challenges in securing a path to power.
Final results are expected following the counting of approximately half a million absentee ballots from military personnel, diplomats, and individuals in correctional or medical facilities. These ballots are not anticipated to substantially alter the overall outcome.
The political maneuvering to form a government is ongoing, with questions arising about potential alliances between Jewish and Arab parties, and whether parties that campaigned on ousting Netanyahu might instead join forces with him. Despite these uncertainties, Netanyahu remains in charge of caretaker government functions.
Netanyahu's rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, acknowledged the need for a government that serves all citizens and reflects the public will, though he did not explicitly address potential cooperation with Arab-led parties. The Joint List, an Arab party, noted a significant turnout and stated its openness to political cooperation.
Netanyahu's Likud party has alleged election irregularities and requested an investigation, though the election committee has reported a low number of such incidents. Israel's President Isaac Herzog is expected to task a party leader with forming a government next week, traditionally the head of the party with the most votes, though this is not a strict requirement.
Should a government not be formed after multiple attempts, Israel could face new elections in early 2027. Both President Herzog and Eisenkot have indicated a desire to avoid this scenario.
The election took place against a backdrop of deep societal divisions in Israel, including debates over the exemption of the ultra-Orthodox from military service and the country's international standing amid criticism regarding the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and settler violence in the West Bank. Netanyahu himself remains a polarizing figure, facing corruption allegations and accusations of political motivations behind decisions related to the war in Gaza.
Concerns about further military action against Iran have also been raised, with the Trump administration having indicated potential post-election strikes. Analysts suggest Netanyahu might leverage such developments to pursue a unity government under his leadership.