The U.S. and Iran have reached the halfway point of a 60-day negotiating period aimed at securing a peace agreement, but the first 30 days have been characterized by escalating military actions rather than diplomatic progress.
The agreement, established on June 17, sought to address Iran's nuclear and missile programs, sanctions, and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, this period has seen repeated Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, hundreds of U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets, and retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the region. President Donald Trump has declared the ceasefire "over."
Military Pressure and Revoked Concessions
The Trump administration has withdrawn a significant concession—a temporary waiver allowing Iran to sell oil—and reinstated a naval blockade that had been lifted after the memorandum was signed. The administration is increasingly relying on military and economic pressure to bring Iran back to substantive negotiations before the window closes on August 16.
In response to Iran violating the memorandum of understanding by attacking three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. revoked the oil waiver. A U.S. official stated the agreement was "entirely performance-based" and that Iran would only receive benefits for demonstrating "good behavior."
Within days of the agreement, fighting resumed and accelerated in early July after Iran's attacks on commercial vessels. U.S. forces conducted strikes on over 300 Iranian targets across three nights, including air defense systems, missile and drone sites, coastal radars, and naval capabilities. The campaign has since expanded, targeting roads, bridges, and military bases near Bandar Abbas in an effort to cut off resupply routes for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces.
The U.S. also disabled the tanker Belma after it reportedly ignored warnings while sailing toward Iran's primary oil-export terminal. In retaliation, Iran has launched missile and drone attacks against countries hosting U.S. forces in the Gulf, including a strike that damaged a power and desalination plant in Kuwait.
Differing Objectives and Diplomatic Outlook
Experts suggest that Washington and Tehran entered the negotiating period with fundamentally different objectives. Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, argued that the U.S. viewed the period as an opportunity for a long-term agreement, while Iran saw it as a chance to rearm.
Despite the heightened conflict, Trump has indicated that communication lines remain open, stating that Iran has made a "fresh overture" and wants to meet. "We'll find out whether or not we settle with them, or we just finish it off," Trump said. The release of U.S.-Iranian citizen Dena Karari, who had been prevented from leaving Iran since December 2024, was described by Trump as a "gesture of goodwill."
However, former Trump Defense Secretary Mark Esper expressed doubt that an expanded bombing campaign would significantly alter Iran's course. He advocated for comprehensive economic pressure backed by international support, acknowledging it would require time and potentially increase costs for American consumers in the short term.
The success of the current diplomatic path hinges on the next 30 days. Failure to de-escalate the conflict and return to substantive negotiations could lead to the closure of the negotiating window with the two nations at war.