Tropical Storm Karina has formed in the Pacific Ocean and current weather models indicate a possibility of it making landfall in Southern California, a rare event for the region. If Karina strengthens into a hurricane and strikes the coast, it would be the first named storm to do so in California since 1997.
Karina erupted Thursday afternoon with sustained winds exceeding 45 mph, and the National Hurricane Center expects it to intensify into a hurricane by Friday night. While initial forecasts suggested the storm would remain offshore near Mexico, updated models show a potential shift eastward, with multiple paths indicating a direct hit between San Diego and Los Angeles.
California has no record of a hurricane making landfall in the state, according to the National Weather Service. The last tropical storm to cross into the U.S. from Mexico at tropical storm strength was Hurricane Nora in 1997. Prior to that, the Long Beach Tropical Storm in 1939 marked a significant, though distant, precedent for a storm taking a similar path into Southern California.
Although tropical cyclones frequently develop in the Pacific during the summer, they seldom approach the U.S. West Coast. This is typically because the cold waters of the California Current prevent storms from maintaining their strength. However, a developing 'Super' El Niño this year is contributing to significantly warmer sea surface temperatures, which could alter typical weather patterns and allow a storm like Karina to sustain its intensity as it nears the coast.
In August 2023, Southern California was affected by Hurricane Hilary, though officials later confirmed it had weakened to below tropical storm strength before making landfall.