Tropical Storm Karina is projected to strengthen into a major hurricane in the coming days, with an increasing number of forecasting models indicating a potential landfall along the California coast. Current forecasts suggest Karina could reach hurricane strength by Friday night and intensify into a Category 3 storm, with sustained winds exceeding 111 mph, by Sunday morning.
New "spaghetti models," which track the potential paths of tropical storms, show multiple trajectories that could bring Karina directly to the California coast. Initial predictions from the American GFS model suggested possible landfalls in the San Diego or Los Angeles areas. While the European model (EPS Ensemble) was initially more skeptical of a U.S. landfall, updated forecasts on Friday now also show potential paths toward Southern California and points further north.
A hurricane has never made landfall in California in recorded history, according to the National Weather Service. The last time a tropical storm directly impacted the state was in 1997. A tropical storm has not tracked from the Pacific Ocean directly toward the California coast in nearly a century, with the Long Beach Tropical Storm occurring in 1939.
Forecasters caution that prediction models can shift significantly as storms develop and approach land. The certainty of model accuracy decreases with longer forecast horizons. The current spread of spaghetti models, showing paths in various directions, indicates a high degree of uncertainty regarding Karina's ultimate track.
