Labour's agreement with France to return small-boat migrants could be delayed or blocked by a series of last-minute legal challenges, Conservative politicians warned as the government prepared for the first deportation flights this week.
Ministers have been gearing up to begin removals under the "one in, one out" deal announced by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron in July. The treaty, which came into effect on Aug. 7, has coincided with more than 5,400 small-boat arrivals in the same period, and the Home Office said it expects "the first returns to take place imminently."
Conservative home affairs spokesman Chris Philp, who served as an immigration minister in a previous government, said lawyers representing migrants would mount "a slew of last-minute legal challenges" to prevent removals. Philp said the government had not removed legal protections for asylum seekers — including the Human Rights Act in immigration matters — nor blocked the use of modern slavery claims, which he called a pretext to stay in Britain. "What we should do is deport every single illegal immigrant immediately on arrival," he added.
Officials and MPs have cited the experience of earlier removal attempts as a warning. In June 2022, a planned flight under the former Conservative government's Rwanda asylum deal was halted after a late-night injunction from the European Court of Human Rights. Labour and government lawyers may face similar emergency legal interventions if migrants or their representatives secure court orders.
When the one-in, one-out arrangement was announced, officials suggested returns would run at about 50 people a week. At that pace, fewer than 2,000 migrants would be sent back to France before the agreement expires on June 11 next year. By contrast, 31,026 people have crossed the Channel so far this year, a 38% increase on the same period in the previous year, according to government figures cited by ministers and opposition members.
The Home Office and government sources insisted preparations for flights were under way. A Transport Secretary told officials that immigration levels were one factor affecting other public services. Minutes of a Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency meeting, obtained by the RAC Foundation via a freedom of information request, said officials had told Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander that "immigration demand from non-EU countries had increased substantially" and that this was presented as part of the scale of the challenge in reducing driving test backlogs. Nationals from non-EU countries with a full driving licence are permitted to drive in Britain for 12 months before needing a British licence, which requires passing the driving test; the minutes showed 644,398 tests were booked at the end of August.
Labour ministers have sought to frame the Franco-British arrangement as a bilateral tool to reduce crossings by making returns more routine, while critics argue the number of returns under the pact would be too small to affect the broader surge in crossings. Legal campaigners and charities have previously relied on domestic courts and international human-rights bodies to seek stays on removals, raising the prospect that flights could be delayed even after they are cleared administratively.
The dispute in Westminster has drawn notice across transatlantic policy circles because it highlights the legal and operational limits that courts can place on government efforts to expedite removals. Governments in other democracies have also faced litigation that can interrupt deportation plans, and observers say legal risk is a central consideration in designing bilateral return arrangements.
As the first scheduled returns approach, ministers, opposition figures and legal teams are preparing for parallel legal and political skirmishes that could determine whether the flights proceed on time or are impeded by emergency injunctions.