Analysis commissioned by the Conservative party suggests that Labour's proposed early prison release scheme could result in nearly 90,000 additional crimes being committed by mid-2029. The projections indicate that these offenses would be carried out by individuals released early, including those convicted of sex offenses, robbery, arson, and violent crimes.
According to the analysis, the scheme, championed by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, could lead to approximately 500 additional sex offenses, nearly 1,800 violent crimes, and just under 36,000 thefts before the end of the current parliamentary term. The forecast also estimates increases in weapon possession, drug-related offenses, and public order offenses.
Tory justice spokesman Nick Timothy criticized the plan, stating it would lead to "dangerous offenders let back on to their streets" and called it a "disaster." Conservatives are urging the Labour party to reconsider the scheme and listen to victims.
The Prime Minister had previously paused the scheme following public backlash, particularly after concerns were raised about the potential early release of individuals convicted in the murder of PC Andrew Harper in 2019. Burnham is facing pressure to exclude more serious offenders from early release, having initially only disqualified rapists and the most serious sex offenders.
The Ministry of Justice acknowledged that early release measures "may have impacts" on recent rises in re-offending rates, though it also stated that isolating the impact of individual policies is not possible. The current early release policy was introduced by Labour in September 2024 as an emergency measure to address prison overcrowding, and approximately 20,000 individuals have already been released under it. The new scheme, slated to take effect in October, is part of the Sentencing Act 2026, designed to alleviate prison capacity issues.
Recent government data indicates a proven re-offending rate of 29.9 percent, a 1.9 percent increase from the previous year. A government document noted that "various policy changes," including the early release scheme, "may have impacts upon re-offending rates."
Under Labour's proposed changes, prisoners eligible for release after serving two-thirds of their sentence could now be considered after half their term. Less serious offenders might be released after serving one-third of their sentence instead of half.
The figures predicting nearly 90,000 additional offenses were generated using Ministry of Justice data on the number of offenders eligible for early release for specific crimes. These crimes encompass a wide range, including sexual offenses, public order offenses, motoring violations, drug-related crimes, theft, robbery, fraud, violence, criminal damage, arson, and weapon possession.
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson described the analysis as "highly speculative and an inaccurate method of calculating the impact of sentencing reforms." The spokesperson warned that without such reforms, prisons risk reaching capacity, which could lead to a collapse of the system, hindering police arrests and court proceedings, and resulting in "unchecked criminality on our streets." The ministry stated that the Sentencing Act aims to restore order to a prison system at risk of collapse and that a significant investment in probation and community punishment will help manage offenders safely in the community.
Reform UK's home affairs spokesman, Zia Yusuf, is expected to announce plans to halt early release for individuals convicted of murder and serious violent crimes, and to deport foreign nationals serving sentences in the UK. Yusuf criticized the Labour plan, stating that "Andy Burnham is about to release killers from jail early, including the men who killed PC Harper." He also attributed the prison capacity crisis to the Conservative party's policies, including immigration levels and insufficient prison construction.
Reform UK proposes deporting 10,000 foreign nationals to free up prison space for serious offenders. The Police Federation's deputy national chairman, Brian Booth, stated that the public is watching how the situation is handled. A source from the probation officers' union, Napo, expressed concern that "more people, largely women, will be killed or harmed" due to the scheme.