CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten indicated that the race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas presents a "very real" opportunity for Democrats, citing polling data that shows the party with its "best looking" prospects in the state in approximately four decades. The Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, is currently leading the Republican nominee and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by three points in a recent Fox News poll.
This three-point lead contrasts sharply with the 2018 Senate race, where Republican Ted Cruz held a six-point advantage over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke, according to a Quinnipiac poll from that year. Enten noted that independent voters, who were evenly split between Cruz and O'Rourke in 2018, are now strongly supporting Talarico, giving him a 39-point lead among this crucial demographic in the current polling.
A key factor Enten highlighted in the shift is the difference in public perception between the two Republican candidates. While Cruz maintained a positive net favorability rating of +8 points in July 2018, Paxton's net favorability is currently six points underwater. "That is, I think, one of the biggest differences in this race," Enten said, referring to Paxton's lower popularity.
Enten also speculated that former President Donald Trump's standing in Texas could be influencing the political landscape. Trump's net popularity in the state has dropped six points since July 2018, and his approval rating has recently reached its lowest point in a CNN poll since the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack. Trump won Texas by double digits in the 2020 election, marking the first time a Republican presidential nominee had done so in over a decade. The Democratic Party has not won a statewide U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988.