Democrat James Talarico holds a slim 0.6 percentage point lead over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the state's U.S. Senate race, according to a poll released Tuesday. The survey found Talarico with 44.0% support among likely voters compared to Paxton's 43.4%, with two months remaining until Election Day.
When undecided voters who lean toward a candidate are included, the race is tied at 50% each, the poll indicated. Poll director Mark Cunningham of Overton Insights noted that while Paxton trails slightly, the results are encouraging for his campaign, placing him within the margin of error and aligning with betting markets.
Cunningham suggested Paxton has potential for growth in the traditionally Republican state, as he holds a narrower advantage with Republican voters compared to Talarico's substantial lead among Democrats. Paxton secured the Republican nomination after a costly primary, ultimately winning with the endorsement of former President Trump.
An earlier hypothetical matchup in the poll showed that if incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn had won the primary instead of Paxton, he would have been trailing Talarico by a slightly larger margin, 43.6% to 42.7%. Representative Jasmine Crockett, another potential Democratic nominee, would be trailing Paxton by approximately 6 percentage points.
Overall, Talarico leads Paxton by 1.9 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls. Democrats have not won a Texas Senate seat since 1988.
Elsewhere in Texas politics, incumbent Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by a narrow margin of 46.9% to 45.8%, a difference also within the poll's margin of error.
The Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll surveyed 1,167 likely voters between August 24-26. It reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The survey also touched on potential 2028 presidential primary preferences, with former Vice President Kamala Harris leading among Democrats and Marco Rubio leading among Republicans.
President Trump's approval rating in Texas is currently underwater, with 44.1% approving of his performance and 55.9% disapproving.