Sweden's next government remains uncertain as the national election approaches its final results, with a slim lead for the left-wing opposition and an underwhelming performance by a hard-right anti-immigration party.
Preliminary results show the opposition parties inching toward a majority in the 349-seat Riksdag, the national parliament. With over 94% of districts counted, the four opposition parties were projected to secure 176 seats, while the four parties supporting the outgoing government were set for 173 seats. The final outcome may not be determined until Wednesday, when early and overseas votes are tallied.
Former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, whose center-left Social Democrats are the largest single party but lost support compared to the 2022 election, expressed cautious optimism. "Right now we are leading," she told supporters, while acknowledging the need to "wait for the final election result."
However, even if the left secures a parliamentary majority, Andersson faces a complex task in forming a government. Tensions exist within the opposition bloc, with the Center Party stating its unwillingness to form a government alongside the Left Party. Any cross-bloc coalition would also present significant challenges.
Conservative Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who has led Sweden since 2022 with a three-party center-right coalition, indicated he would explore "possibilities" given the close result. His coalition has relied on the Sweden Democrats, an anti-immigration party with far-right roots, for a parliamentary majority. Kristersson noted a "very clear non-socialist majority" and suggested he would "at least figure out whether there are any possibilities" for a government formation.
Kristersson acknowledged that the process "could lead to a complicated process of forming a government. It may take time, but we’re in no rush."
The Sweden Democrats saw their support slip to just under 18%, a decrease of about 3 percentage points from their 2022 result, and they fell behind Kristersson's Moderates to third place. The party, founded in the 1980s by individuals active in right-wing extremist groups, has toned down its rhetoric and expelled openly racist members under leader Jimmie Åkesson.
Sweden, a member of the European Union and the newest member of NATO, has seen much election discussion focus on the potential for the hard-right to enter government, set against a backdrop of gains for populist right-wing parties across Europe. Broad political consensus in Sweden exists on key issues such as support for Ukraine and NATO membership.