Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine is facing an exceptionally close contest in her bid for a sixth term, according to the first Fox News Power Rankings of the 2026 midterm elections. The race has been categorized as a toss-up, with a new poll indicating a slight lead for Democratic challenger Troy Jackson.
The Pine Tree Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows Jackson with a three-point advantage over Collins among likely general election voters in Maine. The election is considered a crucial battleground that could determine control of the U.S. Senate, which Republicans currently hold by a slim majority.
Jackson Secures Democratic Nomination
Troy Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, is on track to become the Democratic nominee after winning a significant majority of delegates at county conventions. His top rivals for the nomination have since endorsed him, making his securing the nomination at the Saturday convention in Bangor all but certain. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger who switched from Republican to Democratic parties over two decades ago, previously ran unsuccessfully for the 2026 Maine gubernatorial nomination.
Jackson is set to replace Graham Platner, who withdrew from the race earlier this month following an allegation of rape. Platner denied the report but stepped aside amid calls for his departure from leading Democrats.
Jackson has positioned himself as the successor to the progressive and populist movement that had backed Platner. He has the support of Our Revolution, a group founded out of Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign, and shares Platner's platform focused on working-class voters. Jackson's policy positions include raising taxes on billionaires, supporting Medicare-for-all, abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and opposing military aid to Israel.
Collins Faces Political Headwinds
Senator Collins, a moderate Republican known for her bipartisan work and for casting her 10,000th consecutive Senate vote last month, faces a challenging political climate. The race is occurring amid President Donald Trump's low approval ratings, persistent inflation, and an unpopular war with Iran, according to polls.
Democrats are targeting Collins for her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, whose crucial vote later overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion ruling. Additionally, following a recent fatal shooting involving ICE agents in Maine, Democrats have criticized Collins, the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, for her support of ICE funding.
Despite these challenges, Collins has a history of defeating Democratic challengers, including her victory over Sara Gideon by nearly 9 points six years ago. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to reclaim the majority they lost in the 2024 elections. The Maine race is listed among several toss-up Senate contests, including those in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, according to the Fox News Power Rankings. 
