Young adults seeking to marry in their 20s are more likely to find higher marriage rates in the American heartland than in major coastal metropolitan areas, according to a new study by the Institute for Family Studies (IFS). The research highlights a geographical disparity in family formation, with states like Tennessee, Indiana, and Utah showing elevated marriage rates among young adults.
Wendy Wang, Director of Research at the IFS, stated that "For singles, your best odds of finding love and getting married aren’t in big coastal cities where most singles live, but in middle America, where more marriage‑minded singles are." The findings are part of the IFS’s “Get Married Maps” initiative, which analyzes regional marriage trends and influencing factors such as employment, religion, and political leanings.
The study found that for adults aged 22-29, regions with the highest marriage rates include Provo, Utah, and parts of Tennessee, Indiana, Nebraska, Kentucky, Idaho, North Carolina, Kansas, and Georgia. Conversely, eight of the ten regions with the lowest early marriage rates are concentrated within the New York and Los Angeles metropolitan areas.
However, the study notes that the geographic pattern shifts for older adults. For individuals aged 30-39, metropolitan areas including parts of New York, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Chicago, along with Texas and Indiana suburbs, exhibit higher marriage rates. Wang cautioned that living in an area with a large single population does not necessarily increase the likelihood of marriage, stating, "If you think your best chance of finding someone to marry is in the places with the most singles, think again."
The research also explored factors contributing to marriage rates, such as the ratio of single men to single women. Areas with a higher ratio of full-time-employed single men to all single women showed increased marriage rates, particularly for women in their thirties where men earning at least $60,000 annually correlated with higher marriage rates. For women in their twenties, this financial link was less pronounced, suggesting younger couples prioritize factors other than high salaries. The study also indicated that for young men in their twenties, earning $60,000 or more roughly doubles their likelihood of marrying compared to lower earners.
"Single men’s jobs remain one of the strongest factors driving marriage in America," Wang added.
An interesting correlation was observed between regional marriage rates for young adults and the 2024 presidential election results. Areas that favored Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the election showed a strong positive correlation with higher marriage rates for adults in their twenties. For those in their thirties, this correlation reversed. The study suggests a potential explanation that more rural areas, where Trump generally performed better, may have higher marriage rates for younger adults. The researchers emphasized that these findings represent broad regional patterns and not definitive causal links between location or political environment and marriage.
The study's methodology relies on respondents' current locations, not necessarily where they met their spouses or lived at the time of marriage. The researchers also acknowledged that residential mobility post-marriage could influence regional marriage statistics.
