Scottish separatists have seized upon remarks made by Labour leader Andy Burnham regarding the conditions for a new independence referendum, with an election expert suggesting that arguments can be made for majority public support in favor of such a vote.
Burnham stated during Prime Minister's Questions that a fresh vote could only occur if there was 'a majority of public support' in Scotland. He initially indicated this was not currently the case, a stance that has drawn scrutiny from election analyst Sir John Curtice.
Curtice, speaking to BBC Radio Scotland, commented that opinion polls from the recent Holyrood election and its aftermath suggest "at least a small majority in favour of independence." He noted that both sides of the independence debate can present evidence to support their positions. Nationalists can point to a slim majority, around 52 percent to 48 percent, and the fact that a majority of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) favor independence. Conversely, he added, only just over 40 percent of voters cast ballots for pro-independence parties in the May election.
The comments from Burnham, who had previously described a referendum as 'off limits,' prompted First Minister John Swinney to write to him, seeking to codify the terms under which a vote could be held. Swinney stated he was "encouraged" by Burnham's perceived reconsideration and called for a "discussion about where power lies across these islands."
The Prime Minister's office indicated that Scotland should be in a similar position to Northern Ireland, where a border poll can be held when the Northern Ireland Secretary determines there is 'a clear consensus in the country, when public opinion has changed to the point where the call has to be considered.' The Prime Minister confirmed he was 'not aware that there is a majority of public support for another referendum' in Scotland and stated, 'Until that changes there won't be one.'
Curtice further elaborated that the 2014 referendum, in which 55 percent of Scots voted to remain in the UK, "failed to resolve the issue of Scotland's constitutional status." He stated that the challenge for the Scottish National Party (SNP) and its allies is to increase support, which has hovered around 50/50 for seven years, to approximately 60 percent, a level that would make a vote difficult to avoid. However, Curtice concluded that Scotland is "not yet in that position, but equally we are not in as firm a position as unionists would like."