Russia is preparing for the final testing of a new ballistic missile with a range of up to 800 kilometers (approximately 500 miles), a development that could pose significant challenges for Ukraine's already strained air defense systems, according to Ukrainian military intelligence and a defense analyst.
Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, stated that Russia plans to conduct the final tests of this new missile type by the end of the year. The potential capabilities of this missile, particularly its maneuverability, are a key concern.
Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explained to Fox News Digital that advanced maneuverability could make interception more difficult. "If, for instance, this 800-kilometer missile has more advanced maneuverability, well then that's going to create greater problems for Ukraine in that they're going to need the more sophisticated interceptors to get them," Karako said. He elaborated that this could involve terminal maneuvers designed to make the missile's trajectory unpredictable for defenders.
Karako also suggested that Russia might be developing the missile to be produced more affordably or in larger quantities. He noted a broader trend in missile development towards increased precision and maneuverability, moving away from purely ballistic trajectories.
Ukrainian military officials indicated that Russia might use the missile tests to conduct live-fire strikes, potentially targeting areas in western Ukraine. Karako described this as a common practice during wartime, where developmental and operational testing can occur concurrently.
The development of this missile falls into a range previously prohibited by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Signed in 1987, the treaty banned ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The United States withdrew from the treaty in 2019, citing alleged Russian violations.
"This range is one that was formerly prohibited by the INF Treaty that capped ballistic and cruise missiles at 500 kilometers in range," Karako stated. "To some extent, you see Russia filling that gap, which is understandable and reasonable. Of course, they were violating the INF Treaty, which was why the United States got out of it."
Missiles and artillery have been central to Russia's military operations in Ukraine since 2022. Reports from Ukrainian sources indicate that Russia's production of key missile types has exceeded monthly targets. From January 1 to August 27 of the current year, Russia reportedly fired at least 1,858 missiles of various types at Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously highlighted the strain on his country's air defense capabilities, stating a need for a significant number of interceptor missiles, particularly during colder months. Karako observed that Russia appears to be operating on a wartime footing, mobilizing its defense industry to produce missiles at a high rate. He added that while some missiles are likely being deployed to the front lines, there are indications that Russia may be retaining some in reserve.