Russia is increasingly engaging in a proxy war against Britain using a variety of indirect methods, with the potential to escalate to attacks causing significant disruption and loss of life, according to Mark Galeotti, an analyst and Honorary Professor at University College London.
Andrei Fedorov, described as a Kremlin insider, stated on BBC's Newsnight that if Russia retaliates for Britain's support of Ukraine, the attacks would come "from unknown sources." Galeotti interprets this as an acknowledgment that Moscow is already employing numerous indirect methods, which it intends to intensify.
These tactics provide Russia with plausible deniability and make them difficult for security services to counter. Galeotti outlined several levels on which Russia is operating against Western nations.
Organized Crime and Cyber Warfare
Russia is described as a haven for criminals targeting Western companies and individuals. Hacker groups, engaged in ransomware attacks, blackmail scams, and phishing operations, reportedly act with impunity, facing no interference from the Russian state. Malware used by these groups is designed to bypass Russian networks, indicating a deliberate strategy to avoid disrupting domestic systems.
Recent cyber incidents cited include ransomware attacks on Marks and Spencer, disruption to Co-Op payment systems, and temporary shutdowns of operations at Harrods and Jaguar Land Rover.
People Trafficking and Financial Laundering
Beyond attempts to channel migrants into Europe, Russia is reportedly facilitating people trafficking by laundering money for criminal gangs. Russian financial experts, particularly in the Gulf states, are said to use complex dark banking transactions to obscure the origins of illicit funds, making trafficking operations more lucrative and increasing pressure on Western governments.
Social Division and Disinformation
Putin's Russia is characterized as cynical, aiming for mass disruption rather than ideological expansion. The Kremlin allegedly employs "troll farms" to flood social media with disinformation, exploiting various political viewpoints from extreme nationalism to climate change alarmism. The use of artificial intelligence allows these operations to target specific demographics with tailored lies, based on harvested personal data.
Use of Disposable Agents
Instead of traditional espionage methods like sleeper agents, Moscow is reportedly hiring petty criminals to carry out necessary actions. Examples include arson attacks attributed to Ukrainian petty criminals targeting properties and a car linked to Sir Keir Starmer. These "disposable agents" are presented as cheaper to employ, require minimal training, and are considered of little value to security services if captured.
Potential for Major Outages and Escalation
Galeotti warned that Putin could order attacks leading to chaos and potential loss of life. These could include severing internet cables with trawlers or launching cyberattacks against critical infrastructure like NHS computer systems, banks, energy companies, and rail networks. Attacks against arms manufacturers and assassinations have not been ruled out.
However, Galeotti noted that such large-scale attacks would represent a significant escalation, likely to draw a strong response from NATO. Russia may first test NATO's resolve by targeting a weaker nation, such as one of the Baltic states, to gauge the alliance's reaction. He emphasized that the West cannot afford to show Putin any signs of weakness.