Cuba's strategic location, approximately 90 miles from Florida, presents a national security concern for the United States due to its deepening relationships with Russia, China, and Iran, according to a report by the America First Policy Institute (AFPI).
The report, titled "The Dictatorship Next Door: Cuba and the Fight for the Western Hemisphere," argues that Washington has historically focused on Cuba's human rights, migration, or economic issues while underestimating the national security implications of Havana's partnerships with U.S. adversaries. These alliances, the report contends, create opportunities for intelligence gathering, military cooperation, cyber operations, and political influence operations close to the U.S. homeland.
"Cuba is a massive national security threat to the U.S.," said Melissa Ford Maldonado, director of AFPI’s Western Hemisphere Initiative and the report's author. "They are a hostile communist regime that is only 90 miles from Florida."
Intelligence Activity Concerns
The report specifically highlights concerns regarding Chinese intelligence activities on the island. An analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in June 2026 indicated continued activity at Cuban sites capable of signals intelligence collection, with several previously identified sites showing possible links to China. Ford Maldonado stated that credible evidence suggests Chinese bases and spying operations are occurring in Cuba, leveraging the island's geography to monitor U.S. activities.
Russia's Longstanding Partnership
Russia's relationship with Cuba is described as older and more extensive, with Moscow and Havana characterized as increasingly "intimate, reliable partners." This partnership involves diplomatic and military cooperation. Concerns have also been raised regarding Cuban nationals joining Russian forces in Ukraine. A U.S. State Department cable from October 2025 estimated between 1,000 to 5,000 Cubans fighting alongside Russian forces. Ukrainian officials have also reportedly expressed concerns to U.S. lawmakers about Russia's recruitment of Cuban citizens. Cuba has denied sending troops, stating it has prosecuted Cubans for mercenary activity.
Iran's Role
The evidence regarding Iran's involvement is less developed, according to Ford Maldonado. She believes Iran has primarily used Cuba as a platform for influence operations, noting that the evidence was not as substantive as with China and Russia.
Past U.S. Assessments
The Trump administration has previously grouped Iran with Russia and China in its assessments of Cuba. In January 2026, President Donald Trump declared Cuba's policies an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security, citing Havana's alignment with Russia, China, Iran, and Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. The executive order also accused Cuba of hosting foreign military and intelligence capabilities and detailed deep intelligence and defense cooperation with China and Russian signals-intelligence activity.
Proposed U.S. Response
The AFPI report advocates for a more robust U.S. response, suggesting measures such as expanded access agreements, overflight rights, cooperative security locations, and stronger regional partnerships to ensure a "permanent and persistent" American capability in the region.
Humanitarian Crisis in Cuba
These concerns are raised amidst a severe humanitarian crisis in Cuba. Power outages have exceeded 20 hours a day in most provinces, significantly impacting food production, transportation, and tourism. Human Rights Watch has documented severe shortages of food and medicine, prolonged blackouts, and deteriorating living conditions, attributing the crisis to factors including structural inefficiencies, decades of U.S. restrictions, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism, and tightened U.S. sanctions, particularly oil restrictions in 2026.
Critics of the U.S. "maximum pressure" strategy argue that further economic strain could worsen civilian suffering and instability. However, Ford Maldonado maintains that the pressure is aimed at the Cuban regime, not the people, and is necessary to help the Cuban population suffering under its government for decades.