Reform UK Projected for Third Place in General Election, New Megapoll Suggests

Reform UK is projected to finish third in a general election if one were held immediately, according to new research by Electoral Calculus. The poll, utilizing the 'gold standard' MRP method and accounting for tactical voting, suggests Labour would emerge as the largest party.

The projections estimate Labour could secure 217 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 151, and Reform UK with 127. This outcome, if realized, would leave no single party with a stable majority, potentially leading to a coalition government. The research indicates that a combination of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens might form a governing coalition, though even this alliance could fall short of a majority.

Restore Britain, a new political movement included in the polling for the first time, appears to be drawing support away from Reform UK. However, Restore Britain itself is projected to win only one seat. The study suggests that Reform UK is facing pressure on multiple fronts, with the Conservatives also showing signs of recovery.

The survey, conducted between June 23 and June 30 and based on Find Out Now surveys of 5,545 adults, places Labour and Reform UK level on 22 percent of the national vote share. The Conservatives are closely behind at 20 percent, with the Liberal Democrats at 11 percent, the Greens at 10 percent, and Restore Britain at 7 percent.

Analysts note that the inclusion of Restore Britain in the polling is a significant factor, potentially dividing the vote share that might have otherwise gone to Reform UK. The return of Andy Burnham to Westminster is also cited as a potential boost for the Labour party.

The research methodology maps poll findings onto the demographic characteristics of individual areas and incorporates tactical voting. This approach suggests that Reform UK's performance could be further reduced as voters back candidates most likely to prevent their least-favored party from winning in their constituency.

Despite the projections, some analysts suggest the election remains uncertain. The possibility of a hung parliament is considered the most likely outcome based on these figures, with emphasis placed on the parties' ability to present a compelling vision and demonstrate tangible delivery to earn public trust.