A rare 'Super El Niño' is emerging in the Pacific Ocean, and forecasters predict it could deliver significantly more snowfall than usual to at least 14 U.S. states this winter. The phenomenon, driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, is expected to push the natural jet stream southward, bringing increased moisture and storms to many Southern states that typically experience milder winters.
AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate this El Niño event could be the strongest on record, with Pacific sea-surface temperatures potentially rising by 4.8°F (2.66°C) above average. This intensification means stronger winter storms for affected regions, with snow totals possibly exceeding annual averages by two to ten inches. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts the most substantial snow increases are likely to occur between January and March 2027.
States potentially facing heavier-than-average snowfall include parts of southern Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, the Carolinas, and the Florida Panhandle. Central and southern Nevada, central and northern Arizona, portions of northern New Mexico, and most of Virginia are expected to receive a significant portion of this snow.
AccuWeather long-range meteorologist Paul Pastelok noted that a strong El Niño alters weather patterns nationwide, impacting flooding, drought, tropical activity, and early-season snowfall. He also suggested that the atmospheric effects of this powerful El Niño could persist even after the phenomenon subsides, potentially influencing weather into 2027.
The current El Niño has already surpassed the 2023 'marine heat wave' in the Pacific, with water temperatures rising over 3.8°F (2.1°C) above long-term averages in July. This developing event is projected to be stronger than the significant El Niño events of 1982-1983 and 1902-1903.
While the primary focus is on winter snowfall, the exceptionally active Pacific basin this summer, in contrast to limited Atlantic storm development due to extreme wind shear, has already led to 12 named tropical storms and hurricanes. Pastelok also warned that frequent storms along the South to Mid-Atlantic corridor could bring torrential downpours, flooding, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes, particularly later in the year.
This Super El Niño is also being compared to an infamous event in 1877 that contributed to global droughts, crop failures, and a devastating famine. Historical records indicate that such strong El Niño events can have far-reaching and severe impacts on weather patterns worldwide.
The Farmers' Almanac has also predicted wet and cold conditions for the southern U.S. and increased chances of frequent storms, although it forecasts more rain and mixed precipitation for Nevada and Arizona compared to NOAA's snowfall predictions.