Experts are warning that Russia possesses the capability to launch long-range suicide drones into NATO territory, potentially reaching the United Kingdom, Italy, and large parts of France. Russian cruise missiles have landed in Poland and drones have flown into Romania, indicating Moscow's intent to test the alliance's resolve.
Russia's Geran-2 drones, based on Iranian Shahed models, have a range of 1,118 to 1,553 miles, according to Ukrainian intelligence. Military analysts suggest that potential launch sites near St. Petersburg, Cape Chauda in occupied Crimea, or Bryansk could place much of Europe within striking distance. These bases are reportedly being used to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.
Despite this capability, military experts caution that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to order a direct attack on NATO members. They suggest Putin is employing a strategy known as Maskirovka, or 'Call My Bluff,' aimed at generating fear among Western adversaries and bolstering domestic support. The potential for a collective response under NATO's Article 5, which would overwhelm the Russian military, is seen as a significant deterrent.
NATO has observed an increase in probing attacks, including Russian drones entering Polish and Latvian airspace and an explosive-laden drone discovered at a German airport, which the US confirmed belonged to a Russian intelligence service. In July, NATO fighter jets were scrambled over 250% more frequently than the previous year, indicating heightened Russian activity near alliance borders.
Russia has reportedly built new launch pads and rails for advanced long-range drones at 10 bases and along its borders with Belarus and Ukraine. New Russian drone models, Geran-4 and Geran-5, are described as capable of evading air defense systems while carrying significant payloads. These manufacturing efforts are supported by drone-building facilities such as the Alabuga special economic zone, which produces thousands of units annually.
However, analysts emphasize that these fixed launch sites do not reflect the typical deployment of drone warfare, which is usually light and rapidly deployable. Instead, the construction of these bases is interpreted as an oblique threat. Experts believe Russia is already conducting operations in the 'Grey Zone,' including cyberattacks and the sabotage of communication cables, which constitute a daily, albeit less overt, form of attack against the West. These actions are seen as an attempt to erode Western support for Ukraine, rather than a prelude to direct military confrontation.
Some experts also suggest that the publicity surrounding these new drone bases and facilities serves as disinformation and propaganda, intended to intimidate the West and reassure the Russian population, which is reportedly experiencing disgruntlement over the war's economic and human costs. The construction of these bases also makes them potential targets for Western or Ukrainian counterattacks.
Peter Dickinson, a scholar of the conflict, noted that Russia's escalating actions have generated alarm and headlines but have not yet prompted significant countermeasures from NATO. He argues that downplaying these incursions as isolated incidents emboldens Putin and reinforces perceptions of Western weakness. The current strategy is viewed by some as a political tactic to pressure NATO into reducing its support for Ukraine, rather than a genuine military strategy that could succeed against the alliance.