Sales of middle-grade books, aimed at readers aged 8 to 12, have been on a downward trend for over a decade, a decline that significantly accelerated during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This phenomenon, sometimes referred to as "the decline by 9," marks a critical point where children often shift from reading for pleasure to engaging less with books.
Industry experts and authors suggest two primary theories for this trend. One posits that children's reading abilities and focus have diminished due to increased screen time on platforms like iPads and YouTube, leading to lower reading scores that began a decline in 2014. The other theory places blame on publishers, arguing that a shift towards longer, more complex novels, influenced by the success of series like "Harry Potter," has made books too daunting for the target age group. Average page counts for middle-grade novels increased from 174.5 in 2006 to 290 in 2016.
"This is a time when reading habits and interest in reading can really die," said Kelly Dickinson, a middle school librarian. "The hope is to help kids discover what kinds of books or what formats they like — and to show that there are ways in."
The transition from shorter, illustrated chapter books to full-length novels presents a significant hurdle. "If you have a kid who’s not a very confident reader, a long book is very intimidating," Dickinson noted. The "Harry Potter" series, with its later volumes exceeding 200,000 words, is often cited as a benchmark that contributed to longer books in the market, even though many of its initial readers were adults.
The pandemic exacerbated these challenges by disrupting traditional reading discovery channels. "There were factors like schools and libraries closing, not much time with peers, and plenty of screen time during the pandemic," explained Kristen McLean of Circana Entertainment Knowledge Group, describing it as "a perfect storm for lower literacy."
In response, publishers are increasingly focusing on formats that align with children's current preferences. Categories such as illustrated books, graphic novels, and manga saw a surge in popularity during the pandemic. Jackie De Leo, chief merchant and publisher at Scholastic, observed an "unquenchable thirst for manga" among children during 2020.
The industry's new direction emphasizes shorter, funnier books with substantial graphic elements, exemplified by the success of the "Dog Man" series. "Dog Man is full color — so immersive," De Leo said. "Kids like things that are funny, and we were giving them some pretty serious things for a while — books for adults packaged as middle-grade books."
This shift involves embracing visual literacy, with graphic novels and illustrated novels becoming key components. While some worry this indicates a decline in the ability to process pure text, others, like De Leo, see it as a different, equally valid form of literacy. "When she sees kids focusing on the pictures with ease, she takes it as evidence of 'a real visual literacy that they have that I am jealous of,'" the article notes.
Publishers are reorganizing to reflect this new focus. Some imprints have been closed, with new ones being established to specialize in nonfiction and illustrated content. Optimism is returning to the industry, with experts like Joanne O’Sullivan, a children's book author and reporter for Publishers Weekly, noting that "people are beginning to be able to re-envision middle grade."
Meanwhile, recent data indicates a positive rebound in reading scores. Average reading scores for 9-year-olds in 2025 increased by four points from 2022, returning to pre-pandemic levels. The hope within the industry is that as children's reading abilities improve and book formats become more accessible, the "decline by 9" can be effectively managed, ensuring a continued engagement with reading.