A policy proposal suggests that the United States can achieve a decisive victory and end the ongoing conflict with Iran by focusing on internal pressure within the country, rather than through direct military engagement or financial aid to the current government. The strategy, outlined by Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, posits that the only lasting solution to decades of Iranian actions is the dismantlement of its theocratic regime.

This approach emphasizes empowering the Iranian people, who are presented as increasingly disaffected with the current leadership. Recent elections, including the 2024 vote, reportedly saw historically low turnout, with estimates suggesting a significant portion of the electorate either abstained or rejected the regime. This aligns with a pattern of growing nationwide unrest, with protests becoming more frequent and widespread since 2017.

Escalating Internal Dissent

Past uprisings, such as the 2017 protests that spread across more than 80 cities, and the 2019 demonstrations over fuel prices in over 100 locations, are cited as evidence of public discontent. The 2022 "Women, Life, Freedom" movement, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, reportedly encompassed over 160 cities. The most recent revolt at the beginning of 2024 is described as the largest since the 1979 revolution, reaching over 200 cities across all 31 provinces and resulting in a significant number of casualties.

Labor unrest is also noted as a compounding factor, with a quadrupling of documented strikes between 2021 and 2024 involving various sectors, including oil workers, truckers, teachers, and nurses. The proposal argues that the regime's bankrupt economy continuously creates a larger population of young, unemployed, hungry, and persecuted individuals susceptible to protest.

Despite the government's efforts to quell dissent, the proposal suggests that the regime's internal forces, such as the Basij paramilitary and conscripts, often come from the same struggling families as the protesters they are ordered to confront.

Proposed Strategy for Regime Change

The plan calls for the U.S. administration to develop a concrete strategy to support the Iranian people during potential future uprisings, aiming to minimize bloodshed and maximize the chances of overthrowing the current government. This strategy would involve cooperation with allies, including Israel's Mossad, and regional and European partners.

Key components of the proposed strategy include:

  • Information Warfare: Issuing an ultimatum to sever the regime's internet access to suppress protests, while simultaneously working to flood the country with alternative connectivity solutions like Starlink terminals and satellite-linked cell services. This aims to create a potential market of 90 million Iranians once they are free.
  • Disrupting Repression: Employing U.S.-led offensive cyber operations to degrade the regime's command and coordination centers during crackdowns and disrupt its propaganda broadcasts.
  • Protecting Protesters: Developing contingency plans that include limited air support to disrupt regime units moving to suppress civilian demonstrations, which could be critical in determining the success or failure of a crackdown.
  • Internal Fracture: Engaging quietly with regime elites, commanders, and ambassadors to encourage defections, starting with the regular army before the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This would include offering mid-level officers and Basij commanders a structured pathway out, such as amnesty.

The proposal stresses that this strategy would not require U.S. troops on the ground or direct financial transfers to the Iranian government. Instead, it advocates for leveraging economic pressure, similar to the revocation of oil export waivers in June, which is presented as a crucial financial lifeline the regime could not secure militarily. The author argues that the current moment is critical for implementing such a plan.