New York Governor's Race Tightens as Blakeman Trails Hochul by 10 Points in New Poll

New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman is trailing incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul by 10 points, 49% to 39%, among likely voters, according to a Siena College poll released in early August. This margin places Blakeman in a stronger position than Republican challenger Lee Zeldin was at a similar point in the 2022 election cycle.

In August 2022, Hochul led Zeldin by 14 points, 53% to 39%. Hochul ultimately won the 2022 gubernatorial race by six points, securing 53% of the vote to Zeldin's 47%.

"With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark," said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. "The race is already competitive."

Other statewide races in New York show larger leads for Democratic incumbents. Attorney General Letitia James leads her Republican challenger, Saritha Komatireddy, by 18 points, and State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez by 23 points.

The Siena poll indicates Hochul's support is strongest among women, with a 19-point lead over Blakeman (56% to 37%), while male voters are split. Blakeman trails Hochul significantly among Black voters, by 60 points. Hochul also holds a substantial 45-point lead in New York City (64% to 19%).

Blakeman performs better in the suburbs, leading by 8 points, 49% to 41%. The poll shows the upstate vote is split evenly between the two candidates. Blakeman, who is Jewish, also shows support among Catholic voters and 42% of Jewish voters, a typically Democratic-leaning demographic.

On key issues, likely voters believe Hochul would do a better job increasing affordable housing, with 51% favoring her over Blakeman's 35%. Hochul also leads on making prices more affordable, with 48% believing she will do a better job compared to 41% for Blakeman. Voters are divided on public safety, with 47% trusting Hochul more and 44% trusting Blakeman more.

Polls from other organizations suggest an even closer contest. A Super PAC supporting Blakeman reported him trailing by 4 points, 47% to 43%, in a poll conducted last month. Another survey by a conservative-leaning group showed Hochul leading by 6 points, 47% to 41%.

The Siena College poll surveyed 811 likely voters between August 3 and 6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3.