A new online system, dubbed the 'Apocalypse Early Warning System,' has been launched to track private and business aircraft worldwide, seeking to identify potential signs of impending disaster by monitoring the movements of the wealthiest and most connected individuals. The system was developed by Los Angeles programmer Kyle McDonald.
The platform continuously monitors more than 31,000 private and business jets, comparing the number of aircraft in the sky against historical patterns. It aims to detect a surge in activity that could suggest insiders are aware of and preparing for a catastrophe before it is publicly known. On a recent Monday, the system was tracking 869 aircraft, estimated to carry nearly 11,000 people.
McDonald stated that he created the system after observing a rise in private aircraft activity around April 7, coinciding with a statement from President Donald Trump. This observation led him to question whether the movements of the wealthy could provide an early indication of dangers not yet apparent to the general public. His theory was further shaped by reports of substantial prediction-market wagers placed around the prospect of war with Iran.
The 'Apocalypse Early Warning System' assigns a global private-jet activity level ranging from one to five. The highest level is triggered when the number of airborne jets significantly exceeds normal historical fluctuations. Users can view this level in real-time or sign up for text and email alerts for sudden spikes.
McDonald emphasized that the system is not designed to predict specific apocalyptic events but rather to serve as an additional public indicator that something unusual may be occurring behind the scenes. He cautioned that a high alert level does not definitively prove an impending disaster, as routine events can also cause temporary increases in air traffic. The system's threshold for triggering alerts is set at five standard deviations above the baseline to minimize false alarms from holidays or major events.
The platform draws data from public sources, including the Federal Aviation Administration's aircraft registry and ADS-B Exchange. It compiles this information to track global jet movements. The system also provides an estimated passenger count per aircraft by matching models to their maximum capacity, though it notes this is a rough estimate and not a passenger manifest.
The 'Apocalypse Early Warning System' was launched on April 30 and is currently considered an experiment. McDonald suggests that unusual flight patterns are most meaningful when considered alongside other potential warning signs, such as rapid shifts in prediction markets or financial activity related to geopolitical developments.