A new poll suggests that One Nation could be in a position to form a minority government with the Coalition if an election were held today, with the DemosAU poll indicating a hung parliament scenario.
The poll, which collected data from 9,343 voters between May and July 2026, projects that Labor could win between 60 and 72 seats, while One Nation is on track to secure 53 to 66 seats. The Coalition is predicted to win 11 to 22 seats, and the Greens between one and five.
Despite Labor holding a majority of seats, the poll shows One Nation leading with a 30% primary vote in the 64 outer-metropolitan seats considered crucial for determining the government. The party also appears to be leading in 39 of the 41 regional or rural seats, with a 41% primary vote, and could potentially win all of them.
While Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has reportedly dismissed any possibility of a deal with One Nation, citing concerns about its economic plan, Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg has left the door open to such a partnership.
One Nation's strongest support is in Queensland, where the poll shows the party leading in 20 of the state's 30 seats. The party is also showing significant gains in outer metropolitan areas of Brisbane and Perth, as well as some outer seats in Sydney and Melbourne. In Western Australia, One Nation's primary vote has increased by five percentage points, potentially threatening several Labor seats.
The poll also indicates One Nation has taken the lead in three seats in Tasmania. However, in Victoria, while the party leads in all eight regional and rural seats, it does not hold a firm lead in any of the five currently held by the Coalition.
Labor has seen a decline in support among women, down four percentage points, compared to a two-point fall among men. Conversely, One Nation has seen a rise in support among high-income voters. The poll suggests Labor's vote share has decreased more significantly as respondent income has increased, potentially reflecting public reaction to recent budget tax changes.
A significant portion of Coalition voters, however, remain averse to One Nation, with some indicating they would prefer to give preferences to Labor rather than vote for One Nation. These voters are reportedly preventing Labor from falling further behind in the race for government.
Pauline Hanson, the leader of One Nation, has faced scrutiny in recent weeks following an interview in the UK where she stated Australia had been 'flooded' with migrants. She has also drawn criticism for comments on domestic violence, which she described as a 'two-way street,' and for her colleague Malcolm Roberts, who has been accused of embracing conspiracy theories and anti-Semitic tropes.