New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by a slim 4 percentage points, according to a poll commissioned by a pro-Blakeman super PAC. The survey, conducted by Red Oak Strategic for the “Strong and Safe” super PAC, found 47% of registered voters would back Hochul compared to 43% for Blakeman, with 10% undecided.
The poll, which surveyed 2,000 registered voters from July 7-12, also indicated that only 38% of respondents viewed Hochul favorably, while 58% held an unfavorable opinion. Her job performance approval rating stood at 39% approved versus 56% disapproved.
According to the polling memo, 33% of voters believe Hochul, who is seeking a second full term, deserves re-election, while 61% think it is time for a change. The sentiment among voters suggests an environment that favors a challenger, with 57% of respondents indicating New York is headed in the wrong direction and only 33% believing it is on the right track.
Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, has a 30% favorability rating with 23% viewing him unfavorably. A significant portion of voters, 47%, have not heard of him or have no opinion.
The poll highlighted key issues for voters, with the cost of living, inflation, the economy, jobs, and taxes cited as top concerns, followed by public safety. Nearly six in 10 voters blamed politicians for cost-of-living issues.
Regarding personal finances, 43% of voters reported being worse off than a year ago, while 15% are better off. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
The poll also suggested Hochul is trailing among independent voters, with Blakeman leading them 54% to 33%. Blakeman holds a strong lead among Republicans, 83% to 10%, and performs best in suburban areas, polling at 51% there.
Despite the close polling numbers, Hochul possesses a substantial fundraising advantage. Her campaign, “Friends for Kathy Hochul,” reported having $21 million on hand, with an additional $22 million in the state Democratic Party's account. This combined total is more than four times the funds generated by Blakeman and the state Republican Party.
Pro-Blakeman super PACs, such as Strong and Safe, which is backed by MSG owner James Dolan, are expected to raise significant funds to counter Hochul’s financial advantage. MSG Entertainment and MSG Sports have contributed $700,000 to the Strong and Safe super PAC, and Dolan's Coalition to Restore New York previously gave $300,000 to the same group.
The poll's turnout model projects approximately 5.9 million voters will cast ballots. Historically, the party of the sitting president often faces challenges in midterm elections. In the 2018 midterms, then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo won re-election decisively, and Democrats gained seats in the U.S. House and control of the state Senate. In 2022, Hochul defeated Lee Zeldin by 6 percentage points in a midterm election during President Joe Biden’s term.
Other polls have shown different results, with a Siena College poll in late June showing Hochul with a 20-point lead. Another survey by a conservative-leaning group earlier this month had Hochul leading by 6 points.