The New Orleans Saints are projected to win fewer than 5.5 games in the 2026 season, according to projections that highlight ongoing roster transition and retooling. Head coach Kellen Moore, formerly an offensive coordinator for the Chargers and Cowboys, takes over the team as second-year quarterback Tyler Shough aims to secure the starting role. The team is looking to achieve immediate success despite these transitional efforts in a competitive NFC South division.
Last season, the Saints finished with a 5-12 record, missing the postseason. While the defense showed flashes of strong performance, the offense struggled, with an aging Alvin Kamara being a rare consistent presence. An inability to win close games led to a mid-season coaching change, setting the stage for significant offseason structural changes.
To energize the offense, New Orleans hired Kellen Moore as head coach. Key player personnel moves include a four-year contract extension for wide receiver Chris Olave through 2030 and a one-year deal for veteran defensive end Cameron Jordan.
In free agency, the Saints added running back Travis Etienne Jr. to a four-year contract, tight end Noah Fant, and linebacker Kaden Elliss. The team also signed quarterback Zach Wilson, cornerback Martin Emerson, running back Ty Chandler, and safety Terrell Burgess, while losing Taysom Hill and other players deemed less significant.
Roster Outlook
The offense is expected to benefit from the addition of Travis Etienne Jr., who will pair with Alvin Kamara to form a versatile backfield duo suited for Moore's uptempo system. Chris Olave remains the primary target in the passing game. However, questions persist about the quarterback position. While Shough showed capability, his long-term viability as a starter is uncertain, especially as the team did not draft a quarterback. Spencer Rattler struggled during his playing time, and Zach Wilson has not found consistent success elsewhere.
The defense is also a point of concern, with early injury issues impacting the defensive line, which PFF ranks as the 28th in the league. The potential impact of Chase Young could improve the unit, but significant concerns remain.
Betting Perspective
Predictability is a challenge for this Saints team. While Moore is expected to bring more consistency and dynamism to the offense, the quarterback situation presents a significant question mark. Defensive performance will likely need to be near-perfect for the team to secure victories. Consequently, the projection of under 5.5 wins is considered realistic.
Legendary quarterback Drew Brees commented on Tyler Shough's situation, noting the talent around him to succeed for his former team. 
