A tropical threat is developing in the Atlantic, with an 80% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. The system, currently designated Invest 92, is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Early long-range forecasts suggest multiple potential paths, with some models indicating a trajectory towards the U.S. East Coast, specifically the Carolinas, while others show a potential path into the Gulf of Mexico threatening Florida.
The system is currently heading towards the Caribbean, with projections indicating it could impact Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba by the weekend. Following its passage through the Caribbean, expanded spaghetti models show a possibility of the storm turning northward and heading toward the U.S. East Coast next week. However, the exact path and intensity will depend on various factors, including the storm's strength and interaction with wind patterns south of Florida.
The National Hurricane Center has issued warnings that a tropical depression is likely to form. A tropical depression is the initial stage of a tropical cyclone, characterized by a low-pressure area with thunderstorms and relatively low winds. This system could quickly strengthen into Tropical Storm Cristobal if sustained winds reach 39 mph.
This potential storm would be the third named storm to make landfall in the U.S. this hurricane season. Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall in Texas on June 17, and Tropical Storm Bertha impacted Gulf Coast states in mid-July. AccuWeather experts had previously predicted three to five direct hits on the U.S. during the entire season, which concludes on November 30. Despite a recent downgrade in overall storm predictions due to El Niño, AccuWeather still forecasts four to seven storms reaching hurricane strength and three to five making U.S. landfall.
Forecasters noted that it is too early to determine the ultimate strength of Invest 92. If it continues to draw energy from warm Caribbean waters, it could reach hurricane strength, defined by winds exceeding 75 mph. The last hurricane to make landfall in South Carolina was Hurricane Ian in 2022, which caused widespread flooding, power outages, and property damage.